Serie A
Udinese vs 
Cagliari Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 44.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.9% for over 2.5 to 14.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.3% | 85.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.3%
22.4%
53.6%
28.0%
Card handicap
| Udinese line | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.1% | 25.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.8% | 50.2% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Udinese vs Cagliari. Slightly more cards are projected for Cagliari for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
44.8%Over 3.5 cards10.3%Any red card47.3%Udinese over 1.5 cards53.6%Cagliari over 1.5 cards62.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Udinese over 1.5 cards sits at 47.3% and Cagliari at 53.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (Udinese 7.4%, Cagliari 3.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Udinese vs Cagliari?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 44.8% for Udinese vs Cagliari.
Will there be a red card in Udinese vs Cagliari?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Udinese vs Cagliari?
The model rates Cagliari to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,167 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.