Genoa vs Napoli: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Serie A

Genoa

LDDLL

Full time0-2Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK27°C · Clear

Napoli

WDLWW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Draw or Napoli

67%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Genoa 0-2 Napoli

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score

3 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Napoli at 48.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 54.9% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

NapoliWin probability

48.0%

Top 3 convictions

Draw or Napoli76.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Over 1.5 goals67.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.49

Under 2.5 goals60.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

The model leans Napoli at 48% when Genoa host Napoli in the Serie A on 22 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Napoli at 51%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 40% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Genoa, 2 draws and 3 for Napoli at 3.4 goals per match. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Genoa against W3 D1 L2 for Napoli. Lorenzo Colombo drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Napoli win48.0%@ 2.08

Over 8.5 corners45.5%@ 2.20

Over 2.5 goals39.9%@ 2.51

Medium risk

Not both teams to score54.9%@ 1.82

Genoa or draw52.0%@ 1.92

Random finds

0-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.45

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.50

0-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Genoa

23.8%+2.9%

Draw

28.2%+0.2%

Napoli

48.0%-3.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.567.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.9%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.545.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.535.8%

Toss-up

Over 10.527.4%

Low chance

Over 11.520.3%

Low chance

Most cornersGenoa47.0%Napoli41.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.3%

Good chance

Over 24.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.3%

Low chance

Over 28.520.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.567.1%2.539.9%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.567.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

GenoaLDDLL

NapoliWDLWW

Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 2 draws · Napoli 3 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-02-07Genoa 2-3 Napoli

2025-10-05Napoli 2-1 Genoa

2025-05-11Napoli 2-2 Genoa

2024-12-21Genoa 1-2 Napoli

2024-02-17Napoli 1-1 Genoa

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Genoa

Napoli

League position#16 of 20#2 of 20

Record W-D-L10-11-1723-7-8

Current streakL2W2

Points per game1.082.00

Record, home vs away6-4-910-3-6

PPG, home vs away1.161.74

Goals scored per game1.081.53

Goals conceded per game1.340.95

Scored, home vs away1.161.32

Conceded, home vs away1.370.95

1st half goals per game0.420.82

2nd half goals per game0.660.71

Corners won per game3.75.5

Cards per game1.71.3

Fouls per game12.411.2

Red cards this season32

Shots per game11.513.3

Shots on target per game3.84.7

xG for per game1.271.52

xG against per game1.471.10

Over 2.5 rate

52.6%52.6%

BTTS rate

52.6%47.4%

Clean sheets

23.7%39.5%

Rates this season:GenoaNapoli

League averages this season: 2.43 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 45%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lorenzo ColomboGenoa · key player

To score17.1%

@ 5.85

1+ on target50.7%

@ 1.97

2+ shots51.7%

@ 1.93

Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.27

Alisson SantosNapoli · key player

To score24.8%

@ 4.03

1+ on target68.1%

@ 1.47

2+ shots61.3%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.72Goals/90 0.43

Caleb EkubanGenoa · in form

To score9.8%

@ 10.20

1+ on target27.9%

@ 3.58

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.31

Khvicha KvaratskheliaNapoli · in form

To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target63.2%

@ 1.58

2+ shots80.1%

@ 1.25

Shots/90 3.75SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.39

Andrea PinamontiGenoa · in form

To score24.1%

@ 4.15

1+ on target56.7%

@ 1.76

2+ shots64.3%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 2.46SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.31

Giacomo RaspadoriNapoli · in form

To score21.5%

@ 4.65

1+ on target42.9%

@ 2.33

2+ shots48.9%

@ 2.04

Shots/90 3.46SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.51

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Genoa win4.504.20

Draw3.403.54

Napoli win1.902.08

Over 2.5 goals2.302.51

Under 2.5 goals1.621.66

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Genoa win4.17

Draw3.48

Napoli win2.12

Both teams to score2.22

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12

Over 1.5 goals1.49

Over 2.5 goals2.51

Over 3.5 goals5.07

Genoa most4.17

Napoli most2.12

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.74

Over 8.5 corners2.17

Over 9.5 corners2.82

Over 10.5 corners3.80

Genoa most2.12

Napoli most2.39

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.48

Over 3.5 cards2.16

Over 4.5 cards3.61

Over 5.5 cards6.81

Genoa most3.13

Napoli most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.71

Over 7.5 SoT2.16

Over 8.5 SoT2.84

Over 9.5 SoT3.89

Genoa most2.35

Napoli most2.23

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.91

Over 24.5 shots2.49

Over 26.5 shots3.41

Over 28.5 shots4.94

Genoa most1.87

Napoli most2.49

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.36

Over 22.5 fouls1.64

Over 24.5 fouls2.10

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	58.5%	Over 7.5	46.4%	Over 8.5	35.2%	Over 9.5	25.7%
Most: Genoa	42.5%	Most: Napoli	44.8%
Genoa Over 4.2	32.3%	Napoli Over 4.2	33.9%

Cards

Over 2.5	67.5%	Over 3.5	46.3%	Over 4.5	27.7%
Most: Genoa	31.9%	Most: Napoli	46.4%
Genoa Over 1.8	46.3%	Napoli Over 1.8	57.0%

Genoa: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Lorenzo Colombo	2.5	1.02	0.27	50.7%	51.7%	17.1%
Caleb Ekuban	2.88	0.98	0.31	27.9%	25.0%	9.8%
Andrea Pinamonti	2.46	0.94	0.31	56.7%	64.3%	24.1%
Junior Messias	2.19	0.64	0.19	24.1%	24.4%	7.9%
Ruslan Malinovskiy	2.2	0.63	0.21	34.9%	44.2%	13.3%

Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Alisson Santos	3.12	1.72	0.43	68.1%	61.3%	24.8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	3.75	1.25	0.39	63.2%	80.1%	26.8%
Giacomo Raspadori	3.46	1.18	0.51	42.9%	48.9%	21.5%
Scott McTominay	2.78	1.05	0.35	63.2%	74.1%	28.3%
Kevin De Bruyne	2.07	0.84	0.38	45.7%	44.3%	24.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Genoa clean sheet	25.2%
Napoli clean sheet	40.4%
Genoa win to nil	14.4%
Napoli win to nil	29.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	24.0%	draw	28.7%	away	47.3%

double_chance

1X	52.7%	12	71.3%	X2	76.0%

dnb

home	33.7%	away	66.3%

btts

yes	45.1%	no	54.9%

clean_sheet

home	25.3%	away	40.5%

win_to_nil

home	14.4%	away	29.7%

winning_margin

home_by_1	15.7%	home_by_2	6.2%	home_by_3plus	2.1%
away_by_1	24.2%	away_by_2	14.4%	away_by_3plus	8.7%

correct_score

0-0	10.9%	0-1	13.4%	0-2	9.7%
0-3	4.5%	0-4	1.5%	0-5	0.4%
1-0	8.6%	1-1	13.3%	1-2	8.8%
1-3	4.0%	1-4	1.4%	1-5	0.4%
2-0	4.2%	2-1	5.7%	2-2	4.0%
2-3	1.8%	2-4	0.6%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	1.3%	3-1	1.7%	3-2	1.2%
3-3	0.5%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.3%	4-1	0.4%	4-2	0.3%
4-3	0.1%	4-4	0.0%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.1%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.0%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	0.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.4%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	89.1%	under_0.5	10.9%	over_1.5	67.1%
under_1.5	32.9%	over_2.5	39.9%	under_2.5	60.1%
over_3.5	19.7%	under_3.5	80.3%	over_4.5	8.2%
under_4.5	91.8%	over_5.5	2.9%	under_5.5	97.1%

odd_even

odd	48.2%	even	51.8%

team_home

over_0.5	59.5%	under_0.5	40.5%	over_1.5	22.9%
under_1.5	77.1%	over_2.5	6.4%	under_2.5	93.7%

team_away

over_0.5	74.8%	under_0.5	25.3%	over_1.5	40.1%
under_1.5	59.9%	over_2.5	16.2%	under_2.5	83.8%

most

home	24.0%	draw	28.7%	away	47.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	2.1%	away_+2.5	97.9%	home_-1.5	8.3%
away_+1.5	91.7%	home_-0.5	24.0%	away_+0.5	76.0%
home_+0.5	52.7%	away_-0.5	47.3%	home_+1.5	76.9%
away_-1.5	23.1%	home_+2.5	91.3%	away_-2.5	8.7%

total_exact

exact_0	10.9%	exact_1	22.0%	exact_2	27.2%
exact_3	20.2%	exact_4	11.5%	exact_5	5.3%
exact_6	2.0%	exact_7plus	0.9%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	15.1%	draw	41.7%	away	43.2%

total

over_0.5	67.7%	under_0.5	32.3%	over_1.5	31.2%
under_1.5	68.8%	over_2.5	10.6%	under_2.5	89.4%

btts

yes	15.9%	no	84.1%

total_exact

exact_0	32.3%	exact_1	36.5%	exact_2	20.6%
exact_3	7.8%	exact_4plus	2.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.0%	draw	41.3%	away	33.7%

total

over_0.5	70.6%	under_0.5	29.4%	over_1.5	34.6%
under_1.5	65.4%	over_2.5	12.6%	under_2.5	87.4%

btts

yes	20.7%	no	79.3%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	10.6%	H/D	3.2%	H/A	1.3%
D/H	10.4%	D/D	17.2%	D/A	14.0%
A/H	1.8%	A/D	6.1%	A/A	35.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	57.6%	under_7.5	42.4%	over_8.5	46.1%
under_8.5	53.9%	over_9.5	35.5%	under_9.5	64.5%
over_10.5	26.3%	under_10.5	73.7%	over_11.5	18.8%
under_11.5	81.2%	over_12.5	13.0%	under_12.5	87.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	57.9%	under_3.5	42.1%	over_4.5	42.6%
under_4.5	57.4%	over_5.5	29.6%	under_5.5	70.4%

team_away

over_3.5	54.1%	under_3.5	45.9%	over_4.5	38.7%
under_4.5	61.3%	over_5.5	26.0%	under_5.5	74.0%

most

home	47.1%	draw	11.0%	away	41.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	18.9%	away_+3.5	81.1%	home_-1.5	36.4%
away_+1.5	63.6%	home_-0.5	47.1%	away_+0.5	52.9%
home_+0.5	58.1%	away_-0.5	41.9%	home_+1.5	68.4%
away_-1.5	31.6%	home_+3.5	84.5%	away_-3.5	15.5%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	52.3%	under_22.5	47.7%	over_24.5	40.2%
under_24.5	59.8%	over_26.5	29.3%	under_26.5	70.7%
over_28.5	20.2%	under_28.5	79.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	60.9%	under_10.5	39.1%	over_12.5	43.9%
under_12.5	56.1%	over_14.5	29.1%	under_14.5	70.9%

team_away

over_10.5	51.6%	under_10.5	48.4%	over_12.5	34.6%
under_12.5	65.4%	over_14.5	21.1%	under_14.5	78.9%

most

home	53.6%	draw	6.2%	away	40.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	29.4%	away_+4.5	70.6%	home_-2.5	41.0%
away_+2.5	59.0%	home_-0.5	53.6%	away_+0.5	46.5%
home_+0.5	59.8%	away_-0.5	40.2%	home_+2.5	71.3%
away_-2.5	28.7%	home_+4.5	81.0%	away_-4.5	19.0%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	58.5%	under_6.5	41.5%	over_7.5	46.4%
under_7.5	53.6%	over_8.5	35.2%	under_8.5	64.8%
over_9.5	25.7%	under_9.5	74.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	47.9%	under_3.5	52.1%	over_4.5	32.3%
under_4.5	67.7%	over_5.5	20.4%	under_5.5	79.6%

team_away

over_3.5	49.6%	under_3.5	50.4%	over_4.5	33.9%
under_4.5	66.1%	over_5.5	21.7%	under_5.5	78.3%

most

home	42.5%	draw	12.7%	away	44.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	20.7%	away_+2.5	79.3%	home_-0.5	42.5%
away_+0.5	57.5%	home_+0.5	55.2%	away_-0.5	44.8%
home_+2.5	77.5%	away_-2.5	22.5%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	67.5%	under_2.5	32.5%	over_3.5	46.3%
under_3.5	53.8%	over_4.5	27.7%	under_4.5	72.3%
over_5.5	14.7%	under_5.5	85.3%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	46.3%	under_1.5	53.7%	over_2.5	21.1%
under_2.5	78.9%

team_away

over_1.5	57.0%	under_1.5	43.0%	over_2.5	30.6%
under_2.5	69.4%

most

home	31.9%	draw	21.7%	away	46.4%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.4%	away_+1.5	84.6%	home_-0.5	31.9%
away_+0.5	68.1%	home_+0.5	53.6%	away_-0.5	46.4%
home_+1.5	73.8%	away_-1.5	26.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	73.8%	under_20.5	26.2%	over_22.5	61.1%
under_22.5	38.9%	over_24.5	47.7%	under_24.5	52.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	68.8%	under_9.5	31.2%	over_11.5	49.3%
under_11.5	50.7%	over_13.5	31.3%	under_13.5	68.7%

team_away

over_9.5	76.3%	under_9.5	23.7%	over_11.5	58.6%
under_11.5	41.4%	over_13.5	40.3%	under_13.5	59.7%

most

home	40.1%	draw	6.7%	away	53.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.3%	away_+3.5	77.7%	home_-0.5	40.1%
away_+0.5	59.9%	home_+2.5	60.3%	away_-2.5	39.7%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	13.3%	no	86.7%

home

yes	6.8%	no	93.2%

away

yes	7.0%	no	93.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Genoa predictions · Napoli predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets