Inter vs Monza prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Inter vs Monza: model prediction

Serie A
Inter

DWWDD

Sat, 22 Aug 202617:30UK
Monza

LLWLL

Model’s top convictions

92%

Inter or draw

83%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Over 2.5 goals

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
InterWin probability
76.7%
Top 3 convictions

Inter or draw91.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals83.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Over 2.5 goals61.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Inter go into this Serie A meeting with Monza on 22 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 77%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 48%. 2) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Inter, 1 draws and 1 for Monza at 3.2 goals per match. 3) Recent form reads W3 D3 L0 for Inter against W1 D0 L5 for Monza. Schedule edge: Monza have had 363 more days of rest than Inter. As a promoted side, Monza carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. For shots markets, Lautaro Martínez is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.0%@ 2.33
Over 10.5 corners34.2%@ 2.92
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners52.7%@ 1.90
Not both teams to score52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds

2-0 correct score12.4%@ 8.08
3-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.85
1-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.28

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Inter

76.7%

Draw

15.2%

Monza

8.2%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.1%

High probability

Over 2.561.8%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes47.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.7%

Good chance

Over 9.543.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.5%

Low chance

Most cornersInter 62.3% · Monza 28.0%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.1%2.561.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.8%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

InterDWWDD
MonzaLLWLL

Last 5 meetings: Inter 3 · 1 draws · Monza 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2025-03-08Inter 3-2 Monza
2024-09-15Monza 1-1 Inter
2024-01-13Monza 1-5 Inter
2023-08-19Inter 2-0 Monza
2023-04-15Inter 0-1 Monza

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lautaro MartínezInter · key player
To score37.7%

@ 2.65

1+ on target69.4%

@ 1.44

2+ shots82.6%

@ 1.21

Shots/90 3.63SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.54
Daniel MaldiniMonza · key player
To score13.8%

@ 7.25

1+ on target47.9%

@ 2.09

2+ shots58.0%

@ 1.72

Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.2
Francesco Pio EspositoInter · in form
To score18.1%

@ 5.52

1+ on target48.2%

@ 2.07

2+ shots48.4%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 3.34SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.41
Milan DjuricMonza · in form
To score19.6%

@ 5.10

1+ on target42.5%

@ 2.35

2+ shots36.6%

@ 2.73

Shots/90 1.64SoT/90 0.71Goals/90 0.28
Marcus ThuramInter · in form
To score35.7%

@ 2.80

1+ on target60.2%

@ 1.66

2+ shots66.3%

@ 1.51

Shots/90 2.94SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.57
KeitaMonza · in form
To score16.7%

@ 5.99

1+ on target36.6%

@ 2.73

2+ shots36.4%

@ 2.75

Shots/90 1.96SoT/90 0.7Goals/90 0.28

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Inter win1.33
Draw6.12
Monza win11.43
Both teams to score2.09

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.62
Over 3.5 goals2.52
Over 4.5 goals4.56
Inter most1.33
Monza most11.43

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.53
Over 8.5 corners1.84
Over 9.5 corners2.30
Over 10.5 corners2.96
Inter most1.60
Monza most3.57

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.13
Over 4.5 cards3.52
Over 5.5 cards6.59
Inter most3.13
Monza most2.15

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.44
Over 7.5 SoT1.71
Over 8.5 SoT2.11
Over 9.5 SoT2.70
Inter most1.54
Monza most4.02

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.09
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.86
Inter most1.42
Monza most4.06

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.36
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.11
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.3% Over 7.5 58.3% Over 8.5 47.3% Over 9.5 37.1%
Most: Inter 64.9% Most: Monza 24.9%
Inter Over 4.2 55.5% Monza Over 4.2 26.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.2% Over 3.5 47.0% Over 4.5 28.4%
Most: Inter 31.9% Most: Monza 46.5%
Inter Over 1.8 46.8% Monza Over 1.8 57.6%

Inter: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lautaro Martínez 3.63 1.35 0.54 69.4% 82.6% 37.7%
Francesco Pio Esposito 3.34 1.35 0.41 48.2% 48.4% 18.1%
Marcus Thuram 2.94 1.19 0.57 60.2% 66.3% 35.7%
Marko Arnautovic 2.37 1.02 0.68 28.4% 18.3% 20.0%
Hakan Calhanoglu 2.35 0.78 0.34 46.4% 56.1% 23.8%

Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Daniel Maldini 2.63 0.88 0.2 47.9% 58.0% 13.8%
Milan Djuric 1.64 0.71 0.28 42.5% 36.6% 19.6%
Keita 1.96 0.7 0.28 36.6% 36.4% 16.7%
Gianluca Caprari 1.59 0.6 0.16 27.6% 21.1% 8.2%
Samuele Birindelli 0.9 0.6 0.18 37.8% 16.0% 13.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 74.9% draw 16.4% away 8.8%
double_chance
1X 91.3% 12 83.7% X2 25.1%
dnb
home 89.6% away 10.5%
btts
yes 47.9% no 52.2%
clean_sheet
home 48.1% away 8.6%
win_to_nil
home 43.6% away 4.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.0% home_by_2 21.7% home_by_3plus 31.2%
away_by_1 6.3% away_by_2 1.9% away_by_3plus 0.5%
correct_score
0-0 4.5% 0-1 2.7% 0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.3% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 9.7% 1-1 7.8% 1-2 2.7%
1-3 0.7% 1-4 0.1% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 12.4% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 3.3%
2-3 0.8% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 10.2% 3-1 7.4% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 6.3% 4-1 4.6% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 3.1% 5-1 2.3% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 4.0%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 12.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.5% under_0.5 4.5% over_1.5 83.1%
under_1.5 16.9% over_2.5 61.8% under_2.5 38.2%
over_3.5 39.6% under_3.5 60.4% over_4.5 21.9%
under_4.5 78.1% over_5.5 10.6% under_5.5 89.4%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 91.4% under_0.5 8.6% over_1.5 70.4%
under_1.5 29.6% over_2.5 44.6% under_2.5 55.4%
team_away
over_0.5 51.9% under_0.5 48.1% over_1.5 16.7%
under_1.5 83.3% over_2.5 3.8% under_2.5 96.2%
most
home 74.9% draw 16.4% away 8.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.2% away_+2.5 68.8% home_-1.5 52.9%
away_+1.5 47.1% home_-0.5 74.9% away_+0.5 25.1%
home_+0.5 91.3% away_-0.5 8.8% home_+1.5 97.6%
away_-1.5 2.4% home_+2.5 99.5% away_-2.5 0.5%
total_exact
exact_0 4.5% exact_1 12.4% exact_2 21.3%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 17.7% exact_5 11.4%
exact_6 6.1% exact_7plus 4.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 56.3% draw 32.6% away 11.1%
total
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.5%
under_1.5 56.5% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.3%
total_exact
exact_0 22.8% exact_1 33.7% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 12.3% exact_4plus 6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 68.8% draw 22.8% away 8.4%
total
over_0.5 87.1% under_0.5 12.9% over_1.5 60.7%
under_1.5 39.3% over_2.5 33.6% under_2.5 66.4%
btts
yes 26.5% no 73.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 53.5% H/D 2.4% H/A 0.5%
D/H 22.4% D/D 7.4% D/A 2.7%
A/H 4.0% A/D 3.1% A/A 4.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.2% under_7.5 34.8% over_8.5 54.3%
under_8.5 45.7% over_9.5 43.6% under_9.5 56.5%
over_10.5 33.8% under_10.5 66.3% over_11.5 25.3%
under_11.5 74.7% over_12.5 18.4% under_12.5 81.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 58.5%
under_4.5 41.5% over_5.5 45.3% under_5.5 54.7%
team_away
over_3.5 47.4% under_3.5 52.6% over_4.5 32.1%
under_4.5 67.9% over_5.5 20.5% under_5.5 79.6%
most
home 62.5% draw 9.5% away 28.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.7% away_+3.5 67.3% home_-1.5 52.3%
away_+1.5 47.7% home_-0.5 62.5% away_+0.5 37.5%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.1% home_+1.5 80.1%
away_-1.5 19.9% home_+3.5 91.3% away_-3.5 8.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.9% under_22.5 40.1% over_24.5 47.8%
under_24.5 52.2% over_26.5 36.2% under_26.5 63.8%
over_28.5 25.9% under_28.5 74.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.6% under_10.5 24.4% over_12.5 60.9%
under_12.5 39.1% over_14.5 45.6% under_14.5 54.4%
team_away
over_10.5 43.8% under_10.5 56.2% over_12.5 27.4%
under_12.5 72.6% over_14.5 15.5% under_14.5 84.5%
most
home 70.3% draw 5.1% away 24.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 46.7% away_+4.5 53.3% home_-2.5 58.8%
away_+2.5 41.2% home_-0.5 70.3% away_+0.5 29.7%
home_+0.5 75.4% away_-0.5 24.6% home_+2.5 84.0%
away_-2.5 16.0% home_+4.5 90.4% away_-4.5 9.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.3% under_6.5 30.7% over_7.5 58.3%
under_7.5 41.7% over_8.5 47.3% under_8.5 52.7%
over_9.5 37.1% under_9.5 62.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.6% under_3.5 30.4% over_4.5 55.5%
under_4.5 44.5% over_5.5 42.0% under_5.5 58.0%
team_away
over_3.5 41.2% under_3.5 58.9% over_4.5 26.1%
under_4.5 73.9% over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.6%
most
home 64.9% draw 10.3% away 24.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 42.3% away_+2.5 57.7% home_-0.5 64.9%
away_+0.5 35.1% home_+0.5 75.1% away_-0.5 24.9%
home_+2.5 89.7% away_-2.5 10.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.2% under_2.5 31.8% over_3.5 47.0%
under_3.5 53.0% over_4.5 28.4% under_4.5 71.6%
over_5.5 15.2% under_5.5 84.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 46.8% under_1.5 53.2% over_2.5 21.5%
under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_1.5 57.6% under_1.5 42.4% over_2.5 31.1%
under_2.5 68.9%
most
home 31.9% draw 21.6% away 46.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.5% away_+1.5 84.5% home_-0.5 31.9%
away_+0.5 68.1% home_+0.5 53.5% away_-0.5 46.5%
home_+1.5 73.6% away_-1.5 26.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 73.5% under_20.5 26.5% over_22.5 60.8%
under_22.5 39.2% over_24.5 47.4% under_24.5 52.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.1% under_9.5 25.9% over_11.5 55.8%
under_11.5 44.3% over_13.5 37.4% under_13.5 62.6%
team_away
over_9.5 70.9% under_9.5 29.1% over_11.5 51.8%
under_11.5 48.2% over_13.5 33.6% under_13.5 66.4%
most
home 49.4% draw 6.8% away 43.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.9% away_+3.5 70.1% home_-0.5 49.4%
away_+0.5 50.6% home_+2.5 69.0% away_-2.5 31.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.3% no 88.7%
home
yes 1.9% no 98.1%
away
yes 9.6% no 90.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Inter predictions · Monza predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Serie AInterMonzaTrack record