Serie A
Roma vs 
Inter Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 66.0% for over 2.5 to 14.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.0%. Between the two sides, Inter are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.1% | 73.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.5% | 85.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.2%
21.5%
54.9%
29.2%
Card handicap
| Roma line | Roma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| -0.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| +0.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 43.4% | 56.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Roma vs Inter. It tips Inter for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.0%Over 3.5 cards11.0%Any red card46.2%Roma over 1.5 cards54.9%Inter over 1.5 cards56.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Roma over 1.5 cards sits at 46.2% and Inter at 54.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.0% (Roma 7.2%, Inter 4.1%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Roma vs Inter?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.0% for Roma vs Inter.
Will there be a red card in Roma vs Inter?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Roma vs Inter?
The model rates Inter to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,167 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
