Udinese vs Como prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

By /

Udinese vs Como: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Serie A
Udinese

DWWLL

Full time1-1Sat, 22 Aug 202617:30UK
Como

WDWWW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Draw or Como

71%

Over 1.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Udinese 1-1 Como
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Como at 51.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 55.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 51.5% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ComoWin probability
51.1%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Como78.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 1.5 goals71.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Under 2.5 goals55.3%Good chancePays @ 1.81

Model read

▾

The model leans Como at 51% when Udinese host Como in the Serie A on 22 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 53% on Como, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 45% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. • The run in: Udinese arrive W2 D1 L3, Como W4 D1 L1. • For shots markets, Florian Thauvin is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 1 wins for Udinese, 1 draws and 2 for Como over 4 games, 1.8 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.7%@ 2.24
Over 9.5 corners39.8%@ 2.51
Over 10.5 corners31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk

Not both teams to score51.5%@ 1.94
Over 8.5 corners49.5%@ 2.02
Udinese or draw48.9%@ 2.05
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.77
0-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.18
0-2 correct score9.7%@ 10.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Udinese

21.6%+0.8%

Draw

27.2%+0.9%

Como

51.1%-1.8%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.5%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.8%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.6%

Low chance

Most cornersUdinese51.9%Como37.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.555.2%

Good chance

Over 24.543.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.1%2.544.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

UdineseDWWLL
ComoWDWWW

Last 4 meetings: Udinese 1 · 1 draws · Como 2 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-04-06Udinese 0-0 Como
2026-01-03Como 1-0 Udinese
2025-01-20Como 4-1 Udinese
2024-09-01Udinese 1-0 Como

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

UdineseComo
League position#10 of 20#4 of 20
Record W-D-L14-8-1620-11-7
Current streakL2W3
Points per game1.321.87
Record, home vs away6-5-810-5-4
PPG, home vs away1.211.84
Goals scored per game1.181.71
Goals conceded per game1.260.76
Scored, home vs away0.951.58
Conceded, home vs away1.110.74
1st half goals per game0.500.71
2nd half goals per game0.681.00
Corners won per game4.54.5
Cards per game2.02.2
Fouls per game13.713.4
Red cards this season33
Shots per game11.614.5
Shots on target per game3.95.1
xG for per game1.241.79
xG against per game1.501.04
Over 2.5 rate

44.7%44.7%

BTTS rate

44.7%42.1%

Clean sheets

28.9%50.0%

Rates this season:UdineseComo

League averages this season: 2.43 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 45%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Florian ThauvinUdinese · key player
To score28.2%

@ 3.55

1+ on target64.8%

@ 1.54

2+ shots64.7%

@ 1.55

Shots/90 2.47SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.37
Nico PazComo · key player
To score22.8%

@ 4.39

1+ on target70.2%

@ 1.42

2+ shots84.2%

@ 1.19

Shots/90 3.71SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.29
Lorenzo LuccaUdinese · in form
To score31.1%

@ 3.22

1+ on target55.7%

@ 1.80

2+ shots61.1%

@ 1.64

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.47
Patrick CutroneComo · in form
To score19.9%

@ 5.03

1+ on target55.5%

@ 1.80

2+ shots63.5%

@ 1.57

Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.32
Keinan DavisUdinese · in form
To score20.5%

@ 4.88

1+ on target50.0%

@ 2.00

2+ shots44.9%

@ 2.23

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.34
Tasos DouvikasComo · in form
To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target48.7%

@ 2.05

2+ shots45.8%

@ 2.18

Shots/90 2.48SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.5

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Udinese win4.504.62
Draw3.603.67
Como win1.831.96
Over 2.5 goals2.202.24
Under 2.5 goals1.671.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Udinese win4.28
Draw3.68
Como win2.02
Both teams to score2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.24
Over 3.5 goals4.26
Udinese most4.28
Como most2.02

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners1.98
Over 9.5 corners2.51
Over 10.5 corners3.30
Udinese most1.92
Como most2.67

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.79
Over 4.5 cards2.71
Over 5.5 cards4.62
Udinese most2.67
Como most2.37

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.68
Over 7.5 SoT2.10
Over 8.5 SoT2.75
Over 9.5 SoT3.74
Udinese most2.19
Como most2.40

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.81
Over 24.5 shots2.32
Over 26.5 shots3.13
Over 28.5 shots4.45
Udinese most1.83
Como most2.55

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.51
Over 24.5 fouls1.87
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 59.7% Over 7.5 47.6% Over 8.5 36.4% Over 9.5 26.8%
Most: Udinese 45.7% Most: Como 41.7%
Udinese Over 4.2 35.3% Como Over 4.2 32.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.4% Over 3.5 56.0% Over 4.5 36.9%
Most: Udinese 37.4% Most: Como 42.1%
Udinese Over 1.8 57.0% Como Over 1.8 60.3%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Florian Thauvin 2.47 1.17 0.37 64.8% 64.7% 28.2%
Lorenzo Lucca 2.61 1.03 0.47 55.7% 61.1% 31.1%
Keinan Davis 2.26 1.03 0.34 50.0% 44.9% 20.5%
Nicolo Zaniolo 2.81 0.86 0.19 49.8% 65.8% 14.1%
Arthur Atta 1.97 0.64 0.12 36.7% 41.1% 8.2%

Como: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Nico Paz 3.71 1.36 0.29 70.2% 84.2% 22.8%
Patrick Cutrone 3.12 1.17 0.32 55.5% 63.5% 19.9%
Tasos Douvikas 2.48 1.07 0.5 48.7% 45.8% 26.8%
Assane Diao 2.24 0.87 0.38 51.1% 54.9% 26.8%
Jonathan Ikone 2.7 0.84 0.34 31.8% 34.8% 14.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Udinese clean sheet 22.2%
Como clean sheet 38.3%
Udinese win to nil 13.0%
Como win to nil 29.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 23.4% draw 27.2% away 49.5%
double_chance
1X 50.6% 12 72.8% X2 76.6%
dnb
home 32.1% away 67.9%
btts
yes 48.5% no 51.5%
clean_sheet
home 22.2% away 38.5%
win_to_nil
home 13.0% away 29.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 15.0% home_by_2 6.1% home_by_3plus 2.2%
away_by_1 24.0% away_by_2 15.2% away_by_3plus 10.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.1% 0-1 12.2% 0-2 9.7%
0-3 4.9% 0-4 1.8% 0-5 0.6%
1-0 7.5% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 3.9% 2-1 5.9% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.2% 3-1 1.9% 3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.4% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.9% under_0.5 9.1% over_1.5 71.1%
under_1.5 28.9% over_2.5 44.7% under_2.5 55.3%
over_3.5 23.5% under_3.5 76.5% over_4.5 10.4%
under_4.5 89.6% over_5.5 4.0% under_5.5 96.0%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 61.5% under_0.5 38.5% over_1.5 24.8%
under_1.5 75.2% over_2.5 7.2% under_2.5 92.8%
team_away
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.5%
under_1.5 55.5% over_2.5 19.3% under_2.5 80.7%
most
home 23.4% draw 27.2% away 49.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.2% away_+2.5 97.8% home_-1.5 8.4%
away_+1.5 91.6% home_-0.5 23.4% away_+0.5 76.6%
home_+0.5 50.6% away_-0.5 49.5% home_+1.5 74.5%
away_-1.5 25.5% home_+2.5 89.8% away_-2.5 10.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.1% exact_1 19.8% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.1% exact_5 6.4%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.8% draw 46.4% away 35.8%
total
over_0.5 62.5% under_0.5 37.5% over_1.5 25.7%
under_1.5 74.3% over_2.5 7.7% under_2.5 92.3%
btts
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
total_exact
exact_0 37.5% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.0%
exact_3 5.9% exact_4plus 1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.7% draw 36.0% away 42.3%
total
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
btts
yes 26.1% no 74.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 11.1% H/D 4.3% H/A 2.4%
D/H 10.1% D/D 16.7% D/A 19.6%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.7% A/A 29.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.8% under_7.5 38.2% over_8.5 50.6%
under_8.5 49.4% over_9.5 39.9% under_9.5 60.1%
over_10.5 30.3% under_10.5 69.7% over_11.5 22.3%
under_11.5 77.8% over_12.5 15.8% under_12.5 84.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.8% under_3.5 36.2% over_4.5 49.0%
under_4.5 51.0% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
team_away
over_3.5 53.5% under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 38.1%
under_4.5 61.9% over_5.5 25.5% under_5.5 74.5%
most
home 52.0% draw 10.5% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 41.5%
away_+1.5 58.5% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+1.5 72.1%
away_-1.5 27.9% home_+3.5 86.6% away_-3.5 13.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 55.2% under_22.5 44.8% over_24.5 43.1%
under_24.5 56.9% over_26.5 32.0% under_26.5 68.0%
over_28.5 22.5% under_28.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.5% under_10.5 36.5% over_12.5 46.8%
under_12.5 53.2% over_14.5 31.7% under_14.5 68.3%
team_away
over_10.5 52.9% under_10.5 47.1% over_12.5 35.8%
under_12.5 64.2% over_14.5 22.1% under_14.5 77.9%
most
home 54.7% draw 6.1% away 39.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.7% away_+4.5 69.3% home_-2.5 42.3%
away_+2.5 57.7% home_-0.5 54.7% away_+0.5 45.3%
home_+0.5 60.8% away_-0.5 39.2% home_+2.5 72.1%
away_-2.5 27.9% home_+4.5 81.5% away_-4.5 18.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 59.7% under_6.5 40.3% over_7.5 47.6%
under_7.5 52.4% over_8.5 36.4% under_8.5 63.6%
over_9.5 26.8% under_9.5 73.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 51.1% under_3.5 48.9% over_4.5 35.3%
under_4.5 64.7% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
team_away
over_3.5 48.2% under_3.5 51.8% over_4.5 32.6%
under_4.5 67.5% over_5.5 20.6% under_5.5 79.4%
most
home 45.7% draw 12.6% away 41.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.4% away_+2.5 76.6% home_-0.5 45.7%
away_+0.5 54.3% home_+0.5 58.3% away_-0.5 41.7%
home_+2.5 79.7% away_-2.5 20.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.4% under_2.5 24.6% over_3.5 56.0%
under_3.5 44.0% over_4.5 36.9% under_4.5 63.1%
over_5.5 21.6% under_5.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.0% under_1.5 43.0% over_2.5 30.5%
under_2.5 69.5%
team_away
over_1.5 60.3% under_1.5 39.7% over_2.5 33.8%
under_2.5 66.2%
most
home 37.4% draw 20.4% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.3% away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 37.4%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+0.5 57.9% away_-0.5 42.1%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 24.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.1% under_20.5 22.0% over_22.5 66.4%
under_22.5 33.6% over_24.5 53.4% under_24.5 46.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.3% under_9.5 21.7% over_11.5 61.2%
under_11.5 38.8% over_13.5 43.0% under_13.5 57.0%
team_away
over_9.5 73.2% under_9.5 26.8% over_11.5 54.6%
under_11.5 45.4% over_13.5 36.3% under_13.5 63.7%
most
home 51.5% draw 6.6% away 41.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.1% away_+3.5 67.9% home_-0.5 51.5%
away_+0.5 48.5% home_+2.5 70.5% away_-2.5 29.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.3% no 81.7%
home
yes 14.4% no 85.7%
away
yes 4.7% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Udinese predictions · Como predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Serie AUdineseComoTrack record