Eredivisie
Twente vs 
PSV Eindhoven Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 33.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 55.3% for over 2.5 to 7.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. Between the two sides, PSV Eindhoven are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.2%, with a level count at 23.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.3% | 66.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.8% | 92.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
32.1%
11.3%
51.9%
25.8%
Card handicap
| Twente line | Twente | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.1% | 89.9% |
| -0.5 | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| +0.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| +1.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 11.5% | 88.5% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Twente cards per game10.2Twente fouls per game1.3PSV Eindhoven cards per game8.2PSV Eindhoven fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Twente vs PSV Eindhoven. Slightly more cards are projected for PSV Eindhoven for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.3%Over 3.5 cards7.8%Any red card32.1%Twente over 1.5 cards51.9%PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 cards20.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Twente over 1.5 cards sits at 32.1% and PSV Eindhoven at 51.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.8% (Twente 3.8%, PSV Eindhoven 4.1%). This season Twente have averaged 0.8 cards a game and PSV Eindhoven 1.3.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.3% for Twente vs PSV Eindhoven.
Will there be a red card in Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model rates PSV Eindhoven to pick up more cards at 51.2%, with a level count at 23.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,317 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
