Eredivisie
Twente vs 
PSV Eindhoven Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.1% for over 22.5 to 42.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Between the two sides, Twente are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.4%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.1%
63.3%
48.6%
65.0%
49.0%
34.1%
Shot handicap
| Twente line | Twente | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| -2.5 | 46.3% | 53.8% |
| -0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +0.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 68.8% | 31.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 58.3% | 41.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
21.7Twente shots per game9.8Twente shots faced per game22.7PSV Eindhoven shots per game8.3PSV Eindhoven shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Twente.
In-depth analysis
64.0%Over 24.5 shots63.3%Twente over 12.5 shots49.0%PSV Eindhoven over 12.5 shots78.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Twente over 12.5 shots sits at 63.3% and PSV Eindhoven at 49.0%. This season Twente have averaged 21.7 shots a game and PSV Eindhoven 22.7.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 64.0% for Twente vs PSV Eindhoven.
Which team will have more shots in Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model rates Twente to take more shots at 57.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
