N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
N.E.C. Nijmegen
Sun, 20 Sep 202615:45UK
Go Ahead Eagles

DWLDD

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or Go Ahead Eagles

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Go Ahead Eagles49.6%

Win probability · fair 2.02

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely85.9%Fair 1.16
Draw or Go Ahead EaglesLikely72.4%Fair 1.38
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.9%Fair 1.49

Model read

A measured edge to Go Ahead Eagles: 50% is the model's line for this Eredivisie meeting on 20 September 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 66% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 66%. As a promoted side, N.E.C. Nijmegen carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners47.6%@ 2.10
Over 11.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners57.2%@ 1.75
N.E.C. Nijmegen or draw50.4%@ 1.98
Go Ahead Eagles win49.6%@ 2.02
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.17
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.82
2-1 correct score6.7%@ 14.86

Model vs market

Nijmegen

27.6%

Draw

22.8%

Eagles

49.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely85.9%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5Likely66.2%Fair 1.51
BTTS · YesLikely66.1%Fair 1.51

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.9%Fair 1.49
Over 9.5 cornersClose call57.2%Fair 1.75
Over 10.5 cornersClose call47.6%Fair 2.10
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely38.5%Fair 2.60
Most cornersN.E.C. Nijmegen56.6%Go Ahead Eagles33.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsVery likely76.6%Fair 1.31
Over 24.5 shotsLikely66.8%Fair 1.50
Over 26.5 shotsClose call56.0%Fair 1.79
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely44.9%Fair 2.23

Recent shot volume

Go Ahead Eagles15.3 taken16.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.9%2.566.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Go Ahead EaglesDWLDD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

N.E.C. NijmegenGo Ahead Eagles
League position#21 of 22#8 of 22
Record W-D-L0-0-12-3-1
Current streakL1D2
Points per game·1.50
Record, home vs away·0-2-1
PPG, home vs away·0.67
Goals scored per game·2.50
Goals conceded per game·2.17
Scored, home vs away·2.33
Conceded, home vs away·3.33
1st half goals per game·0.67
2nd half goals per game·1.83
Corners won per game·5.8
Cards per game·0.8
Fouls per game·7.7
Red cards this season·0
Shots per game·15.3
Shots faced per game·16.5
Shots on target per game·6.3
Over 2.5 rate

·83.3%

BTTS rate

·100.0%

Clean sheets

·0.0%

Rates this season:N.E.C. NijmegenGo Ahead Eagles

League averages this season: 3.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

N.E.C. Nijmegen win3.62
Draw4.40
Go Ahead Eagles win2.01
Both teams to score1.51

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.51
Over 3.5 goals2.25
Over 4.5 goals3.88
N.E.C. Nijmegen most3.62
Go Ahead Eagles most2.01

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.23
Over 8.5 corners1.40
Over 9.5 corners1.65
Over 10.5 corners2.04
N.E.C. Nijmegen most1.76
Go Ahead Eagles most2.95

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.91
Over 3.5 cards3.28
Over 4.5 cards6.55
Over 5.5 cards15.02
N.E.C. Nijmegen most3.53
Go Ahead Eagles most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.75
N.E.C. Nijmegen most1.77
Go Ahead Eagles most3.03

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.31
Over 24.5 shots1.50
Over 26.5 shots1.79
Over 28.5 shots2.23
N.E.C. Nijmegen most1.54
Go Ahead Eagles most3.32

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.23
Over 22.5 fouls3.32
Over 24.5 fouls5.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 76.6% Over 24.5 66.8% Over 26.5 56.0% Over 28.5 44.9%
Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 64.8% Most: Go Ahead Eagles 30.1%
N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 13.2 63.1% Go Ahead Eagles Over 13.2 37.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.7% Over 7.5 77.5% Over 8.5 67.8% Over 9.5 57.3%
Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 56.5% Most: Go Ahead Eagles 33.0%
N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 4.2 64.5% Go Ahead Eagles Over 4.2 48.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 52.4% Over 3.5 30.5% Over 4.5 15.3%
Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 28.3% Most: Go Ahead Eagles 47.0%
N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 1.8 33.0% Go Ahead Eagles Over 1.8 47.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet 13.8%
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet 23.4%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win to nil 10.1%
Go Ahead Eagles win to nil 19.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 27.6% draw 22.8% away 49.6%
double_chance
1X 50.4% 12 77.3% X2 72.4%
dnb
home 35.8% away 64.3%
btts
yes 66.1% no 33.9%
clean_sheet
home 13.9% away 23.8%
win_to_nil
home 10.1% away 20.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 15.1% home_by_2 8.0% home_by_3plus 4.5%
away_by_1 20.8% away_by_2 15.1% away_by_3plus 13.7%
correct_score
0-0 3.8% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 6.4%
0-3 4.2% 0-4 2.1% 0-5 0.8%
1-0 4.3% 1-1 9.8% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 6.1% 1-4 3.0% 1-5 1.2%
2-0 3.4% 2-1 6.7% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 4.4% 2-4 2.2% 2-5 0.9%
3-0 1.6% 3-1 3.2% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.1% 3-4 1.0% 3-5 0.4%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.2% under_0.5 3.8% over_1.5 85.9%
under_1.5 14.1% over_2.5 66.2% under_2.5 33.8%
over_3.5 44.4% under_3.5 55.6% over_4.5 25.8%
under_4.5 74.2% over_5.5 13.1% under_5.5 86.9%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.8% over_1.5 42.1%
under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
team_away
over_0.5 86.1% under_0.5 13.9% over_1.5 58.7%
under_1.5 41.3% over_2.5 31.6% under_2.5 68.4%
most
home 27.6% draw 22.8% away 49.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.5% away_+2.5 95.5% home_-1.5 12.6%
away_+1.5 87.4% home_-0.5 27.6% away_+0.5 72.4%
home_+0.5 50.4% away_-0.5 49.6% home_+1.5 71.2%
away_-1.5 28.8% home_+2.5 86.3% away_-2.5 13.7%
total_exact
exact_0 3.8% exact_1 10.3% exact_2 19.7%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 18.6% exact_5 12.7%
exact_6 7.2% exact_7plus 5.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 36.6% away 24.6%
total
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.5%
under_1.5 56.5% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 26.6% no 73.4%
total_exact
exact_0 22.8% exact_1 33.7% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 12.3% exact_4plus 6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.6% draw 31.0% away 37.4%
total
over_0.5 86.1% under_0.5 13.9% over_1.5 58.7%
under_1.5 41.3% over_2.5 31.7% under_2.5 68.3%
btts
yes 39.3% no 60.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.7% H/D 6.9% H/A 4.2%
D/H 11.6% D/D 11.4% D/A 13.7%
A/H 2.2% A/D 4.2% A/A 18.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 81.0% under_7.5 19.0% over_8.5 71.4%
under_8.5 28.6% over_9.5 60.4% under_9.5 39.6%
over_10.5 49.1% under_10.5 50.9% over_11.5 38.1%
under_11.5 61.9% over_12.5 28.4% under_12.5 71.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.0% under_3.5 21.0% over_4.5 66.0%
under_4.5 34.0% over_5.5 51.9% under_5.5 48.1%
team_away
over_3.5 64.9% under_3.5 35.1% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 34.1% under_5.5 65.9%
most
home 56.8% draw 9.4% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.7% away_+3.5 71.3% home_-1.5 47.0%
away_+1.5 53.0% home_-0.5 56.8% away_+0.5 43.2%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+1.5 74.6%
away_-1.5 25.4% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 76.6% under_22.5 23.4% over_24.5 66.8%
under_24.5 33.2% over_26.5 56.0% under_26.5 44.0%
over_28.5 44.9% under_28.5 55.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 82.1% under_10.5 17.9% over_12.5 70.0%
under_12.5 30.0% over_14.5 56.0% under_14.5 44.0%
team_away
over_10.5 61.8% under_10.5 38.3% over_12.5 45.4%
under_12.5 54.6% over_14.5 30.8% under_14.5 69.2%
most
home 64.8% draw 5.0% away 30.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.8% away_+4.5 57.2% home_-2.5 54.0%
away_+2.5 46.0% home_-0.5 64.8% away_+0.5 35.2%
home_+0.5 69.9% away_-0.5 30.1% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.0% away_-4.5 14.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.7% under_6.5 14.3% over_7.5 77.5%
under_7.5 22.5% over_8.5 67.8% under_8.5 32.2%
over_9.5 57.3% under_9.5 42.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.1% under_3.5 21.9% over_4.5 64.5%
under_4.5 35.5% over_5.5 50.1% under_5.5 49.9%
team_away
over_3.5 64.6% under_3.5 35.4% over_4.5 48.0%
under_4.5 52.0% over_5.5 33.1% under_5.5 66.9%
most
home 56.5% draw 10.5% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 35.2% away_+2.5 64.8% home_-0.5 56.5%
away_+0.5 43.5% home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0%
home_+2.5 83.8% away_-2.5 16.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 52.4% under_2.5 47.6% over_3.5 30.5%
under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.3% under_4.5 84.7%
over_5.5 6.7% under_5.5 93.3%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 33.0% under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.9%
under_2.5 88.1%
team_away
over_1.5 47.3% under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.9%
under_2.5 78.1%
most
home 28.3% draw 24.6% away 47.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.6% away_+1.5 88.4% home_-0.5 28.3%
away_+0.5 71.7% home_+0.5 53.0% away_-0.5 47.0%
home_+1.5 75.4% away_-1.5 24.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 44.8% under_20.5 55.2% over_22.5 30.2%
under_22.5 69.9% over_24.5 18.5% under_24.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.4% over_11.5 32.1%
under_11.5 67.9% over_13.5 16.3% under_13.5 83.7%
team_away
over_9.5 53.2% under_9.5 46.8% over_11.5 31.8%
under_11.5 68.3% over_13.5 16.1% under_13.5 84.0%
most
home 46.2% draw 8.1% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.1% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-0.5 46.2%
away_+0.5 53.8% home_+2.5 69.7% away_-2.5 30.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.5% no 87.5%
home
yes 3.9% no 96.1%
away
yes 9.0% no 91.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: N.E.C. Nijmegen predictions · Go Ahead Eagles predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieN.E.C. NijmegenGo Ahead EaglesTrack record