AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
TottenhamTottenhamLDDLD
Full time3-1Mon, 19 Oct 202619/1020:00UK13°C · Cloudy
CoventryCoventryLLLWW

Tottenham 3-1 Coventry cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.6%

Result

Tottenham3-1Coventry
4 yellow cardsTottenham 1, Coventry 3
0 red cardsTottenham 0, Coventry 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.4% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 87.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Andy Madley

Recorded match referee.

Andy Madley in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 307 6
Goals 2.79 3.33
Yellow cards 3.24 3.17
Red cards 0.13 0.00
Corners 11.2 10.3
Fouls 23.4 20.2
Both teams scored 50% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 57% 83%
Home wins 45% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
19 Oct 2026 Tottenham vs Coventry 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 8 29
10 Oct 2026 Watford vs BurnleyChampionship 0-4 4 No 0 0 8 18
18 Sep 2026 Brentford vs Chelsea 3-0 3 No 2 0 16 17
12 Sep 2026 Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 7 27
5 Sep 2026 QPR vs MiddlesbroughChampionship 0-1 1 No 3 0 15 11
28 Aug 2026 Crystal Palace vs Manchester City 1-4 5 Yes 3 0 8 19
24 May 2026 Manchester City vs Aston Villa 1-2 3 Yes 1 0 13 12
9 May 2026 Fulham vs Bournemouth 0-1 1 No 6 2 13 33
25 Apr 2026 Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 13 20
22 Apr 2026 Burnley vs Manchester City 0-1 1 No 0 0 14 22

Andy Madley referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tottenham vs Coventry. Slightly more cards are projected for Coventry for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.0% 27.1%
3.5 cards 52.4% 47.6%
4.5 cards 33.0% 67.0%
5.5 cards 18.3% 81.7%

Who picks up more cards

Tottenham
35.9%
Level
21.2%
Coventry
42.9%

Team cards lines

Tottenham

Over 1.5
53.9%
Over 2.5
27.1%

Coventry

Over 1.5
59.0%
Over 2.5
31.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Tottenham's; Coventry gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Tottenham line Tottenham Coventry
-1.5 18.6% 81.5%
-0.5 35.9% 64.1%
+0.5 57.1% 42.9%
+1.5 76.1% 23.8%

Red card

Any red card12.6%
Tottenham red card4.0%
Coventry red card8.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.7% 33.3%
22.5 fouls 50.9% 49.1%
24.5 fouls 35.5% 64.5%
TottenhamTottenham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Tottenham at home and Coventry away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CoventryCoventry
Statistic
Tottenham
Coventry
Cards per game at this venue
0.7
1.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
1.3

Yellow cards per game
1.3
0.8

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.4%. On the card count, Coventry are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Tottenham over 1.5 cards sits at 53.9% and Coventry at 59.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.6% (Tottenham 4.0%, Coventry 8.9%). This season Tottenham have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Coventry 1.0.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.4%Over 3.5 cards
12.6%Any red card
42.9%Most cards: Coventry
53.9%Tottenham over 1.5 cards
59.0%Coventry over 1.5 cards
50.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCoventry are the pick to collect more cards at 42.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
TottenhamTottenham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CoventryCoventry
Statistic
Tottenham
Coventry
cards per game
1.5
1.0

fouls per game
13.7
10.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Tottenham vs Coventry?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.4% for Tottenham vs Coventry.
Will there be a red card in Tottenham vs Coventry?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tottenham vs Coventry?
Before kickoff, the model rated Coventry to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueTottenham fixtures and statsCoventry fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.