AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Premier League
SunderlandSunderlandLLLDL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1114:00UK10°C · Cloudy
ChelseaChelseaLWWLW

Sunderland vs Chelsea corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.6%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Sunderland.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 75.1% 24.9%
8.5 corners 64.2% 35.8%
9.5 corners 52.6% 47.4%
10.5 corners 41.1% 58.9%
11.5 corners 30.8% 69.2%
12.5 corners 22.1% 78.0%

Who wins the corner count

Sunderland
46.6%
Level
10.2%
Chelsea
43.2%

Team corners lines

Sunderland

Over 3.5
69.4%
Over 4.5
54.1%
Over 5.5
39.4%

Chelsea

Over 3.5
67.2%
Over 4.5
51.5%
Over 5.5
36.8%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sunderland's; Chelsea gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sunderland line Sunderland Chelsea
-1.5 36.7% 63.3%
-0.5 46.6% 53.4%
+0.5 56.8% 43.2%
+1.5 66.5% 33.5%
SunderlandSunderland

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sunderland at home and Chelsea away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ChelseaChelsea
Statistic
Sunderland
Chelsea
Corners won per game at this venue
·
6.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
·
5.0

First-half corners won per game
2.8
2.7

Second-half corners won per game
1.5
3.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
33.3%
42.9%

Matches with corner data
6
7

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
51,077Matches graded

In 24,084 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 52.5%✓ 50.2%✗ 50.6%✓ 56.9%✗ 50.6%✓ 53.7%✗ 51.8%✓ 62.7%✗ 61.2%✓ 61.5%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Over 9.5 52.5%Hit
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Under 9.5 56.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 75.1% for over 7.5 to 22.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. On the corner count, Sunderland are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 46.6%, with a level count at 10.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Sunderland over 4.5 corners sits at 54.1% and Chelsea at 51.5%. This season Sunderland have averaged 4.3 corners won a game and Chelsea 5.9.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.6%Over 9.5 corners
46.6%Most corners: Sunderland
54.1%Sunderland over 4.5 corners
51.5%Chelsea over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSunderland are the pick to win the corner count at 46.6%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
SunderlandSunderland

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ChelseaChelsea
Statistic
Sunderland
Chelsea
corners won per game
4.3
5.9

corners conceded per game
4.5
5.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.6% for Sunderland vs Chelsea.
Which team will win the corner count in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model rates Sunderland to win the corner count at 46.6%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Sunderland and Chelsea average this season?
Sunderland have won 4.3 corners a game this season and Chelsea 5.9.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Corners

Newcastle vs Everton predictionEverton vs Coventry corners predictionLeeds vs Tottenham corners predictionArsenal vs Hull corners predictionFulham vs Newcastle corners predictionNottingham Forest vs Manchester City corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueSunderland fixtures and statsChelsea fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.