AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Premier League
SunderlandSunderlandLLLDL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1114:00UK
ChelseaChelseaLWWLW

Sunderland vs Chelsea cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined61.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined38.6%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards61.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sunderland vs Chelsea. The model leans toward Chelsea for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 79.7% 20.3%
3.5 cards 61.5% 38.6%
4.5 cards 42.1% 57.9%
5.5 cards 25.6% 74.4%

Who picks up more cards

Sunderland
35.0%
Level
19.9%
Chelsea
45.1%

Team cards lines

Sunderland

Over 1.5
59.2%
Over 2.5
32.1%

Chelsea

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
39.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sunderland's; Chelsea gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sunderland line Sunderland Chelsea
-1.5 18.7% 81.3%
-0.5 35.0% 65.0%
+0.5 54.9% 45.1%
+1.5 73.4% 26.7%

Red card

Any red card18.4%
Sunderland red card9.0%
Chelsea red card10.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.8% 30.2%
22.5 fouls 54.4% 45.6%
24.5 fouls 38.9% 61.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sunderland T Bramall 2 3.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SunderlandSunderland

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sunderland at home and Chelsea away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ChelseaChelsea
Statistic
Sunderland
Chelsea
Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.9

Matches with more cards than the opponent
33.3%
·

Matches with card data
6
2
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,240 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 61.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.7% for over 2.5 to 25.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.1%. Head to head on cards, Chelsea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sunderland over 1.5 cards sits at 59.2% and Chelsea at 66.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.4% (Sunderland 9.0%, Chelsea 10.4%). Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, T Bramall, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

61.5%Over 3.5 cards
18.4%Any red card
45.1%Most cards: Chelsea
59.2%Sunderland over 1.5 cards
66.0%Chelsea over 1.5 cards
54.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherT Bramall, Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianChelsea are the pick to collect more cards at 45.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
SunderlandSunderland

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ChelseaChelsea
Statistic
Sunderland
Chelsea
cards per game
1.5
·

fouls per game
11.4
9.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.5% for Sunderland vs Chelsea.
Will there be a red card in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model rates Chelsea to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueSunderland fixtures and statsChelsea fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.