AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Premier League
EvertonEvertonDWDLL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1120:00UK8°C · Cloudy
CoventryCoventryWWLLW

Everton vs Coventry cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Everton vs Coventry. The model leans toward Coventry for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.6% 32.4%
3.5 cards 46.0% 54.0%
4.5 cards 27.1% 72.9%
5.5 cards 14.0% 86.0%

Who picks up more cards

Everton
37.0%
Level
22.3%
Coventry
40.7%

Team cards lines

Everton

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Coventry

Over 1.5
53.3%
Over 2.5
26.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Everton's; Coventry gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Everton line Everton Coventry
-1.5 18.7% 81.3%
-0.5 37.0% 63.0%
+0.5 59.3% 40.7%
+1.5 78.6% 21.4%

Red card

Any red card9.9%
Everton red card3.6%
Coventry red card6.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 58.4% 41.7%
22.5 fouls 42.0% 58.0%
24.5 fouls 27.4% 72.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Everton P Tierney 2 4.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

EvertonEverton

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Everton at home and Coventry away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CoventryCoventry
Statistic
Everton
Coventry
Cards per game at this venue
2.0
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.0
1.3

Yellow cards per game
1.7
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.7

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,300 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.6% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. On the card count, Coventry are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 22.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Everton over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Coventry at 53.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.9% (Everton 3.6%, Coventry 6.5%). Everton’s most frequent referee this season, P Tierney, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.0%Over 3.5 cards
9.9%Any red card
40.7%Most cards: Coventry
50.6%Everton over 1.5 cards
53.3%Coventry over 1.5 cards
42.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherP Tierney, Everton’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCoventry are the pick to collect more cards at 40.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
EvertonEverton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CoventryCoventry
Statistic
Everton
Coventry
fouls per game
7.4
11.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Everton vs Coventry?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.0% for Everton vs Coventry.
Will there be a red card in Everton vs Coventry?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Everton vs Coventry?
The model rates Coventry to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueEverton fixtures and statsCoventry fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.