AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Premier League
NewcastleNewcastleLWLLW
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1120:00UK8°C · Cloudy
EvertonEvertonDWDLL

Newcastle vs Everton cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Newcastle vs Everton. The model leans toward Everton for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.5% 23.5%
3.5 cards 57.1% 42.9%
4.5 cards 37.6% 62.4%
5.5 cards 21.9% 78.1%

Who picks up more cards

Newcastle
27.7%
Level
19.7%
Everton
52.6%

Team cards lines

Newcastle

Over 1.5
50.2%
Over 2.5
23.8%

Everton

Over 1.5
67.8%
Over 2.5
41.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Newcastle's; Everton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Newcastle line Newcastle Everton
-1.5 13.3% 86.7%
-0.5 27.7% 72.3%
+0.5 47.4% 52.6%
+1.5 67.4% 32.6%

Red card

Any red card7.3%
Newcastle red card2.7%
Everton red card4.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 59.9% 40.2%
22.5 fouls 43.6% 56.4%
24.5 fouls 28.8% 71.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Everton P Tierney 2 4.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

NewcastleNewcastle

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Newcastle at home and Everton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EvertonEverton
Statistic
Newcastle
Everton
Cards per game at this venue
4.0
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.3
·

Yellow cards per game
2.8
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
1.1
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.9
1.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
57.1%
20.0%

Matches with card data
7
5
Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 57.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.5% for over 2.5 to 21.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.1%. Between the two sides, Everton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.6%, with a level count at 19.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Newcastle over 1.5 cards sits at 50.2% and Everton at 67.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.3% (Newcastle 2.7%, Everton 4.8%). Everton’s most frequent referee this season, P Tierney, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Newcastle have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Everton 2.2.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

57.1%Over 3.5 cards
7.3%Any red card
52.6%Most cards: Everton
50.2%Newcastle over 1.5 cards
67.8%Everton over 1.5 cards
43.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherP Tierney, Everton’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianEverton are the pick to collect more cards at 52.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
NewcastleNewcastle

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

EvertonEverton
Statistic
Newcastle
Everton
cards per game
2.9
2.2

fouls per game
11.9
8.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Newcastle vs Everton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.1% for Newcastle vs Everton.
Will there be a red card in Newcastle vs Everton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Newcastle vs Everton?
The model rates Everton to pick up more cards at 52.6%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueNewcastle fixtures and statsEverton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.