AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
StuttgartStuttgartLWLLW
Full time2-3Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:30UK8°C · Clear
M'gladbachM'gladbachLLLLL

Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.7%

Result

Stuttgart2-3M'gladbach
6 yellow cardsStuttgart 2, M'gladbach 4
0 red cardsStuttgart 0, M'gladbach 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.3% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 85.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Matthias Jollenbeck

Recorded match referee.

Matthias Jollenbeck in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 3
Goals 3.50 Not available
Yellow cards 4.00 Not available
Red cards 0.09 Not available
Corners 10.8 Not available
Fouls 21.0 Not available
Both teams scored 77% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 73% Not available
Home wins 41% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Stuttgart vs M'gladbach 2-3 5 Yes 6 0 11 23
19 Sep 2026 Hamburg vs FC Koln 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 8 26
5 Sep 2026 Hoffenheim vs Dortmund 2-3 5 Yes 6 0 13 20
9 May 2026 Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich 0-1 1 No 1 0 9 13
26 Apr 2026 Paderborn vs Schalke 042. Bundesliga 2-3 5 Yes 1 0 9 20
17 Apr 2026 St Pauli vs FC Koln 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 13 8
10 Apr 2026 Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 6 0 10 26
21 Mar 2026 Dortmund vs Hamburg 3-2 5 Yes 5 0 14 18
13 Mar 2026 Magdeburg vs Darmstadt2. Bundesliga 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 9 16
7 Mar 2026 Mainz vs Stuttgart 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 11 19

Matthias Jollenbeck referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stuttgart vs M'gladbach. The model leans toward M'gladbach for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.4% 25.6%
3.5 cards 54.3% 45.7%
4.5 cards 34.8% 65.2%
5.5 cards 19.7% 80.4%

Who picks up more cards

Stuttgart
34.9%
Level
20.9%
M'gladbach
44.2%

Team cards lines

Stuttgart

Over 1.5
54.4%
Over 2.5
27.5%

M'gladbach

Over 1.5
61.0%
Over 2.5
33.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Stuttgart's; M'gladbach gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Stuttgart line Stuttgart M'gladbach
-1.5 18.0% 82.0%
-0.5 34.9% 65.1%
+0.5 55.8% 44.2%
+1.5 74.9% 25.1%

Red card

Any red card14.6%
Stuttgart red card5.0%
M'gladbach red card10.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.8% 45.3%
22.5 fouls 42.4% 57.6%
24.5 fouls 31.2% 68.8%
StuttgartStuttgart

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Stuttgart at home and M'gladbach away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

M'gladbachM'gladbach
Statistic
Stuttgart
M'gladbach
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.0

Yellow cards per game
1.2
3.2

Matches with card data
5
5
Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.4% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. On the card count, M'gladbach are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 20.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Stuttgart over 1.5 cards sits at 54.4% and M'gladbach at 61.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Stuttgart 5.0%, M'gladbach 10.1%). This season Stuttgart have averaged 1.2 cards a game and M'gladbach 3.4.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.3%Over 3.5 cards
14.6%Any red card
44.2%Most cards: M'gladbach
54.4%Stuttgart over 1.5 cards
61.0%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards
42.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianM'gladbach are the pick to collect more cards at 44.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
StuttgartStuttgart

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

M'gladbachM'gladbach
Statistic
Stuttgart
M'gladbach
cards per game
1.2
3.4

fouls per game
10.0
15.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Stuttgart vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.3% for Stuttgart vs M'gladbach.
Will there be a red card in Stuttgart vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stuttgart vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated M'gladbach to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaStuttgart fixtures and statsBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.