AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Pro League
St. GilloiseSt. GilloiseWWWWW
Full time1-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1015:00UK
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-HeverleeLLLDW

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined59.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined40.1%

Result

St. Gilloise1-1Oud-Heverlee Leuven
3 yellow cardsSt. Gilloise 0, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3
1 red cardsSt. Gilloise 1, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 59.9% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 80.2% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards59.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven. It tips Oud-Heverlee Leuven for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 78.4% 21.6%
3.5 cards 59.9% 40.1%
4.5 cards 40.8% 59.2%
5.5 cards 24.7% 75.3%

Who picks up more cards

St. Gilloise
29.6%
Level
19.3%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
51.1%

Team cards lines

St. Gilloise

Over 1.5
53.5%
Over 2.5
27.1%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 1.5
68.4%
Over 2.5
42.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St. Gilloise's; Oud-Heverlee Leuven gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St. Gilloise line St. Gilloise Oud-Heverlee Leuven
-1.5 14.9% 85.1%
-0.5 29.6% 70.4%
+0.5 48.9% 51.1%
+1.5 68.2% 31.8%

Red card

Any red card19.8%
St. Gilloise red card4.3%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven red card16.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.5% 31.5%
22.5 fouls 54.6% 45.4%
24.5 fouls 40.5% 59.5%
St. GilloiseSt. Gilloise

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St. Gilloise at home and Oud-Heverlee Leuven away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee
Statistic
St. Gilloise
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
0.7
1.3

Yellow cards per game
2.0
2.0

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 59.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.4% for over 2.5 to 24.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.8%. On the card count, Oud-Heverlee Leuven are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, St. Gilloise over 1.5 cards sits at 53.5% and Oud-Heverlee Leuven at 68.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.8% (St. Gilloise 4.3%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 16.2%). This season St. Gilloise have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

59.9%Over 3.5 cards
19.8%Any red card
51.1%Most cards: Oud-Heverlee Leuven
53.5%St. Gilloise over 1.5 cards
68.4%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards
54.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 59.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianOud-Heverlee Leuven are the pick to collect more cards at 51.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 40.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
St. GilloiseSt. Gilloise

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee
Statistic
St. Gilloise
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
cards per game
2.0
2.1

fouls per game
11.7
11.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 59.9% for St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
Will there be a red card in St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oud-Heverlee Leuven to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise fixtures and statsOud-Heverlee Leuven fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.