AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Pro League
St. GilloiseSt. GilloiseWWWWD
Full time5-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1018:15UK
Cercle BruggeCercle BruggeLLDLL

Union Saint-Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Result

St. Gilloise5-2Cercle Brugge
4 yellow cardsSt. Gilloise 1, Cercle Brugge 3
1 red cardsSt. Gilloise 0, Cercle Brugge 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.8% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 82.3% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Wesli De Cremer

Recorded match referee.

Wesli De Cremer in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 21 4
Goals 3.24 Not available
Yellow cards 4.57 Not available
Red cards 0.25 Not available
Corners 9.2 Not available
Fouls 25.2 Not available
Both teams scored 67% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 76% Not available
Home wins 38% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge 5-2 7 Yes 4 1 14 24
19 Sep 2026 Lommel SK vs Mechelen 0-0 0 No 6 0 11 28
29 Aug 2026 Kortrijk vs Charleroi 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 11 23
9 Aug 2026 Antwerp vs Beveren 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 8 22
17 May 2026 Lommel SK vs Dender 3-2 5 Yes 4 Not available 13 25
2 May 2026 Westerlo vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3-3 6 Yes 5 0 7 26
11 Apr 2026 Standard vs Westerlo 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 8 20
22 Mar 2026 Dender vs Gent 1-3 4 Yes 3 0 9 17
28 Feb 2026 Antwerp vs St Truiden 1-0 1 No 3 0 7 18
15 Feb 2026 Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louviere 0-0 0 No 6 0 12 24

Wesli De Cremer referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge. The model leans toward Cercle Brugge for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.0% 27.0%
3.5 cards 52.8% 47.2%
4.5 cards 33.6% 66.4%
5.5 cards 19.0% 81.0%

Who picks up more cards

St. Gilloise
34.2%
Level
20.9%
Cercle Brugge
44.9%

Team cards lines

St. Gilloise

Over 1.5
52.6%
Over 2.5
26.3%

Cercle Brugge

Over 1.5
60.2%
Over 2.5
33.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St. Gilloise's; Cercle Brugge gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St. Gilloise line St. Gilloise Cercle Brugge
-1.5 17.6% 82.4%
-0.5 34.2% 65.8%
+0.5 55.1% 44.9%
+1.5 74.3% 25.7%

Red card

Any red card17.7%
St. Gilloise red card6.0%
Cercle Brugge red card12.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 63.8% 36.2%
22.5 fouls 49.3% 50.7%
24.5 fouls 35.4% 64.6%
St. GilloiseSt. Gilloise

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St. Gilloise at home and Cercle Brugge away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge
Statistic
St. Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
Yellow cards per game
2.0
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
1.3
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.0

Matches with card data
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 19.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Head to head on cards, Cercle Brugge are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 20.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, St. Gilloise over 1.5 cards sits at 52.6% and Cercle Brugge at 60.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.7% (St. Gilloise 6.0%, Cercle Brugge 12.4%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

52.8%Over 3.5 cards
17.7%Any red card
44.9%Most cards: Cercle Brugge
52.6%St. Gilloise over 1.5 cards
60.2%Cercle Brugge over 1.5 cards
49.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCercle Brugge are the pick to collect more cards at 44.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
St. GilloiseSt. Gilloise

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge
Statistic
St. Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
fouls per game
11.5
12.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.8% for St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge.
Will there be a red card in St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cercle Brugge to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Pro LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise fixtures and statsCercle Brugge fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.