Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Excelsior Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 61.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Ajax have averaged 3.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Excelsior 1.8 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.8% for over 2.5 and 83.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Excelsior in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.8% | 78.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
Team goal lines
86.5%
59.5%
32.4%
69.5%
33.3%
11.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.7% | 83.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.0% | 74.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2Ajax goals scored per game1.2Ajax goals conceded per game83.3%Ajax Over 2.5 rate1.2Ajax 1st-half goals per game2.2Excelsior goals scored per game1.2Excelsior goals conceded per game100.0%Excelsior Over 2.5 rate1.2Excelsior 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
60.6%Both Teams to Score61.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 61.8% for three or more goals and 83.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Ajax favoured at 55.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ajax to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 1 · 3 draws · Excelsior 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.8% for Ajax vs Excelsior.
Will there be a first-half goal in Ajax vs Excelsior?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 75.4%.
How often have Ajax gone over 2.5 recently?
Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Excelsior in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| totals_trader v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
