Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs 
Heerenveen Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 65.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 75.7% for over 22.5 to 44.1% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Head to head on shots, Sparta Rotterdam are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.0%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 44.1% | 55.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.4%
63.8%
49.1%
67.3%
51.5%
36.6%
Shot handicap
| Sparta Rotterdam line | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -2.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +0.5 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.4% | 44.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.5Sparta Rotterdam shots per game17.2Sparta Rotterdam shots faced per game14.8Heerenveen shots per game16.7Heerenveen shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Sparta Rotterdam.
In-depth analysis
65.9%Over 24.5 shots63.8%Sparta Rotterdam over 12.5 shots51.5%Heerenveen over 12.5 shots76.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Sparta Rotterdam over 12.5 shots sits at 63.8% and Heerenveen at 51.5%. This season Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 13.5 shots a game and Heerenveen 14.8.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 65.9% for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen.
Which team will have more shots in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam to take more shots at 56.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,756 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
