Eredivisie
Den Haag vs 
Cambuur Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 61.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Den Haag have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded, Cambuur 1.8 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.8% for over 2.5 and 83.3% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 goals a game. Den Haag have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Cambuur in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.8% | 78.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
Team goal lines
81.5%
50.3%
23.9%
77.7%
44.3%
19.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.8% | 24.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 56.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Den Haag goals scored per game2.7Den Haag goals conceded per game66.7%Den Haag Over 2.5 rate0.2Den Haag 1st-half goals per game1.7Cambuur goals scored per game2.6Cambuur goals conceded per game100.0%Cambuur Over 2.5 rate0.3Cambuur 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
63.9%Both Teams to Score61.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 61.8% for three or more goals and 83.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Den Haag favoured at 41.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Den Haag to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Den Haag 1 · 2 draws · Cambuur 1 · 3.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.8% for Den Haag vs Cambuur.
Will there be a first-half goal in Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 75.8%.
How often have Den Haag gone over 2.5 recently?
Den Haag have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Cambuur in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
