Primeira Liga
Alverca vs 
Rio Ave Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 41.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 53.4% for over 22.5 to 20.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Head to head on shots, Alverca are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.0%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.2% | 69.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.9% | 79.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
65.7%
49.2%
33.8%
47.6%
30.7%
18.0%
Shot handicap
| Alverca line | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| -2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.0% | 70.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.0Alverca shots per game13.2Alverca shots faced per game7.3Rio Ave shots per game15.8Rio Ave shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Alverca.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
41.2%Over 24.5 shots49.2%Alverca over 12.5 shots30.7%Rio Ave over 12.5 shots54.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Alverca over 12.5 shots sits at 49.2% and Rio Ave at 30.7%. This season Alverca have averaged 10.0 shots a game and Rio Ave 7.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 41.2% for Alverca vs Rio Ave.
Which team will have more shots in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
The model rates Alverca to take more shots at 60.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
