AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Sp GijonSp GijonWLLWL
Full time3-2Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1015:15UK
Celta BCelta BLWLLD

Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta B cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined24.7%

Result

Sp Gijon3-2Celta B
7 yellow cardsSp Gijon 5, Celta B 2
1 red cardsSp Gijon 0, Celta B 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 75.3% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 84.8% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Gijon vs Celta B. The model leans toward Celta B for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.6% 11.4%
3.5 cards 75.3% 24.7%
4.5 cards 58.2% 41.8%
5.5 cards 40.7% 59.3%

Who picks up more cards

Sp Gijon
36.3%
Level
18.0%
Celta B
45.7%

Team cards lines

Sp Gijon

Over 1.5
69.8%
Over 2.5
43.8%

Celta B

Over 1.5
75.1%
Over 2.5
50.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Gijon's; Celta B gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sp Gijon line Sp Gijon Celta B
-1.5 21.1% 79.0%
-0.5 36.3% 63.7%
+0.5 54.3% 45.7%
+1.5 71.3% 28.7%

Red card

Any red card15.2%
Sp Gijon red card11.0%
Celta B red card4.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.9% 22.1%
22.5 fouls 65.6% 34.4%
24.5 fouls 52.0% 48.0%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 75.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.6% for over 2.5 to 40.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.2%. Head to head on cards, Celta B are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sp Gijon over 1.5 cards sits at 69.8% and Celta B at 75.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.2% (Sp Gijon 11.0%, Celta B 4.8%). This season Sp Gijon have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Celta B 2.7.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

75.3%Over 3.5 cards
15.2%Any red card
45.7%Most cards: Celta B
69.8%Sp Gijon over 1.5 cards
75.1%Celta B over 1.5 cards
65.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCelta B are the pick to collect more cards at 45.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 58.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Sp GijonSp Gijon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Celta BCelta B
Statistic
Sp Gijon
Celta B
cards per game
2.7
2.7

fouls per game
11.3
13.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sp Gijon vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.3% for Sp Gijon vs Celta B.
Will there be a red card in Sp Gijon vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Gijon vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated Celta B to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónSporting Gijon fixtures and statsCelta B fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.