AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Sp GijonSp GijonWLLWL
Full time3-2Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1015:15UK
Celta BCelta BLWLLD

Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta B corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.6%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.4%

Result

Sp Gijon3-2Celta B
12 cornersSp Gijon 6, Celta B 6
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 55.6% and it missed (12 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.4%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sp Gijon.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 69.0% 31.0%
8.5 corners 56.8% 43.2%
9.5 corners 44.4% 55.6%
10.5 corners 33.0% 67.0%
11.5 corners 23.3% 76.7%
12.5 corners 15.7% 84.3%

Who wins the corner count

Sp Gijon
53.3%
Level
11.1%
Celta B
35.7%

Team corners lines

Sp Gijon

Over 3.5
70.4%
Over 4.5
54.4%
Over 5.5
39.0%

Celta B

Over 3.5
58.4%
Over 4.5
41.0%
Over 5.5
26.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Gijon's; Celta B gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sp Gijon line Sp Gijon Celta B
-1.5 42.0% 58.0%
-0.5 53.3% 46.7%
+0.5 64.4% 35.7%
+1.5 74.3% 25.7%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.0% for over 7.5 to 15.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. On the corner count, Sp Gijon are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 11.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sp Gijon over 4.5 corners sits at 54.4% and Celta B at 41.0%. This season Sp Gijon have averaged 3.1 corners won a game and Celta B 3.7.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

44.4%Over 9.5 corners
53.3%Most corners: Sp Gijon
54.4%Sp Gijon over 4.5 corners
41.0%Celta B over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.4% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSp Gijon are the pick to win the corner count at 53.3%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Sp GijonSp Gijon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Celta BCelta B
Statistic
Sp Gijon
Celta B
corners won per game
3.1
3.7

corners conceded per game
4.9
4.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Sp Gijon vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 44.4% for Sp Gijon vs Celta B.
Which team will win the corner count in Sp Gijon vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sp Gijon to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How many corners do Sp Gijon and Celta B average this season?
Sp Gijon have won 3.1 corners a game this season and Celta B 3.7.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónSporting Gijon fixtures and statsCelta B fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.