AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp BragaSp BragaWLWDL
Full time1-2Mon, 19 Oct 202619/1020:15UK
Gil VicenteGil VicenteDLLDW

Sp Braga 1-2 Gil Vicente cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.5%

Result

Sp Braga1-2Gil Vicente
6 yellow cardsSp Braga 3, Gil Vicente 3
0 red cardsSp Braga 0, Gil Vicente 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 67.5% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 85.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards67.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Gustavo Correia

Recorded match referee.

Gustavo Correia in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 6
Goals 2.21 2.83
Yellow cards 5.32 4.33
Red cards 0.47 0.33
Corners 9.2 9.5
Fouls 26.1 22.2
Both teams scored 47% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 37% 67%
Home wins 16% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
19 Oct 2026 Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente 1-2 3 Yes 6 0 5 22
19 Sep 2026 Nacional vs Famalicao 0-4 4 No 4 1 10 21
14 Sep 2026 Rio Ave vs Estrela 3-3 6 Yes 5 0 9 28
6 Sep 2026 Guimaraes vs Casa Pia 0-0 0 No 4 0 21 22
29 Aug 2026 Arouca vs Maritimo 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 5 17
9 Aug 2026 Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave 1-0 1 No 4 1 7 23
16 May 2026 Sp Braga vs Estrela 2-2 4 Yes 6 1 8 22
2 May 2026 Famalicao vs Benfica 2-2 4 Yes 4 1 10 34
10 Apr 2026 Famalicao vs Moreirense 1-1 2 Yes 11 0 13 30
15 Mar 2026 AVS vs Santa Clara 0-1 1 No 3 1 10 26

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente. It tips Gil Vicente for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.8% 16.2%
3.5 cards 67.5% 32.5%
4.5 cards 48.7% 51.3%
5.5 cards 31.5% 68.5%

Who picks up more cards

Sp Braga
33.4%
Level
18.9%
Gil Vicente
47.7%

Team cards lines

Sp Braga

Over 1.5
62.1%
Over 2.5
35.1%

Gil Vicente

Over 1.5
71.3%
Over 2.5
45.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Braga's; Gil Vicente gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sp Braga line Sp Braga Gil Vicente
-1.5 18.1% 81.9%
-0.5 33.4% 66.6%
+0.5 52.3% 47.7%
+1.5 70.5% 29.5%

Red card

Any red card14.6%
Sp Braga red card8.7%
Gil Vicente red card6.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 79.3% 20.7%
22.5 fouls 68.2% 31.8%
24.5 fouls 55.6% 44.4%
Sp BragaSp Braga

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sp Braga at home and Gil Vicente away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Gil VicenteGil Vicente
Statistic
Sp Braga
Gil Vicente
Cards per game at this venue
1.0
3.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.3

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.0

Matches with card data
7
7
Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.8% for over 2.5 to 31.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the card count, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 18.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 62.1% and Gil Vicente at 71.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Sp Braga 8.7%, Gil Vicente 6.5%). This season Sp Braga have averaged 1.9 cards a game and Gil Vicente 2.0.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

67.5%Over 3.5 cards
14.6%Any red card
47.7%Most cards: Gil Vicente
62.1%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards
71.3%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards
68.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGil Vicente are the pick to collect more cards at 47.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 48.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Sp BragaSp Braga

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Gil VicenteGil Vicente
Statistic
Sp Braga
Gil Vicente
cards per game
1.9
2.0

fouls per game
13.3
13.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.5% for Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente.
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gil Vicente to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Primeira Liga, Cards

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP cards predictionMoreirense vs Estrela cards predictionPorto vs Estoril cards predictionArouca vs Nacional cards predictionAcademico Viseu vs Rio Ave cards predictionMaritimo vs Santa Clara cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaSp Braga fixtures and statsGil Vicente fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.