La Liga
Sociedad vs 
La Coruna Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Sociedad have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, La Coruna 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.8% for over 2.5 and 79.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Sociedad have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, La Coruna in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 20.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 17.2% | 82.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.6% | 92.4% |
Team goal lines
84.6%
55.9%
28.9%
64.8%
28.1%
8.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.1% | 85.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 54.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.2% | 79.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Sociedad goals scored per game1.9Sociedad goals conceded per game71.4%Sociedad Over 2.5 rate0.7Sociedad 1st-half goals per game1.5La Coruna goals scored per game1.2La Coruna goals conceded per game33.3%La Coruna Over 2.5 rate0.8La Coruna 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
55.4%Both Teams to Score55.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 55.8% for three or more goals and 79.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Sociedad favoured at 57.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sociedad to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sociedad 3 · 1 draws · La Coruna 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 55.8% for Sociedad vs La Coruna.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.5%.
How often have Sociedad gone over 2.5 recently?
Sociedad have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, La Coruna in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
