La Liga
Sociedad vs 
La Coruna Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 63.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.9% for over 2.5 to 29.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. On the card count, La Coruna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 18.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.9% | 19.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 29.3% | 70.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.9%
34.9%
66.7%
41.4%
Card handicap
| Sociedad line | Sociedad | La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| -0.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| +0.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 50.8% | 49.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Sociedad cards per game12.4Sociedad fouls per game2.1La Coruna cards per game12.4La Coruna fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sociedad vs La Coruna. It tips La Coruna for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
63.9%Over 3.5 cards21.1%Any red card60.9%Sociedad over 1.5 cards66.7%La Coruna over 1.5 cards64.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Sociedad over 1.5 cards sits at 60.9% and La Coruna at 66.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.1% (Sociedad 6.8%, La Coruna 15.3%). This season Sociedad have averaged 2.4 cards a game and La Coruna 2.1.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.9% for Sociedad vs La Coruna.
Will there be a red card in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates La Coruna to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
