Primeira LigaSL Benfica vs Vitória SC Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 33.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Head to head on cards, Vitória SC are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.1% | 15.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
66.1%
39.5%
70.5%
44.7%
Card handicap
| SL Benfica line | SL Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| -0.5 | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| +0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for SL Benfica vs Vitória SC. The model leans toward Vitória SC for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
69.5%Over 3.5 cards19.4%Any red card66.1%SL Benfica over 1.5 cards70.5%Vitória SC over 1.5 cards73.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, SL Benfica over 1.5 cards sits at 66.1% and Vitória SC at 70.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.4% (SL Benfica 10.1%, Vitória SC 10.3%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.5% for SL Benfica vs Vitória SC.
Will there be a red card in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates Vitória SC to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
