Primeira LigaSL Benfica vs Vitória SC Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.8% for over 2.5 and 73.6% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.8% | 95.2% |
Team goal lines
75.3%
40.8%
16.6%
69.5%
33.2%
11.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.8% | 30.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.0% | 81.0% |
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
52.9%Both Teams to Score47.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.8% for three or more goals and 73.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given SL Benfica favoured at 41.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans SL Benfica to win. See the full prediction →
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 47.8% for SL Benfica vs Vitória SC.
Will there be a first-half goal in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 69.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
