AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
MoreirenseMoreirenseWLLWD
Full time0-1Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1018:45UK
Gil VicenteGil VicenteWDLLD

Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined65%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35%

Result

Moreirense0-1Gil Vicente
7 yellow cardsMoreirense 3, Gil Vicente 4
0 red cardsMoreirense 0, Gil Vicente 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 65.0% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 86.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards65.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente. Slightly more cards are projected for Gil Vicente for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.1% 17.9%
3.5 cards 65.0% 35.0%
4.5 cards 45.9% 54.1%
5.5 cards 28.9% 71.1%

Who picks up more cards

Moreirense
39.4%
Level
19.5%
Gil Vicente
41.1%

Team cards lines

Moreirense

Over 1.5
64.6%
Over 2.5
37.8%

Gil Vicente

Over 1.5
65.8%
Over 2.5
39.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Moreirense's; Gil Vicente gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Moreirense line Moreirense Gil Vicente
-1.5 22.4% 77.6%
-0.5 39.4% 60.6%
+0.5 58.9% 41.1%
+1.5 76.2% 23.8%

Red card

Any red card13.8%
Moreirense red card11.5%
Gil Vicente red card2.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.1% 13.9%
22.5 fouls 77.2% 22.8%
24.5 fouls 66.1% 33.9%
MoreirenseMoreirense

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Moreirense at home and Gil Vicente away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Gil VicenteGil Vicente
Statistic
Moreirense
Gil Vicente
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
·

Yellow cards per game
2.6
1.7

Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0221Calibration error
51,107Matches graded

In 10,269 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 6 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✓ 58.7%✗ 50.2%✓ 54.9%✗ 54.8%✗ 53.5%✗ 53.4%✗ 51.8%✓ 50.8%✓ 50.3%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 3.5 54.7%Miss
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Under 3.5 58.7%Hit
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 3.5 50.2%Miss
Kortrijk vs Mechelen2026-11-04Over 3.5 54.9%Hit
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Under 3.5 54.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 65.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 82.1% for over 2.5 to 28.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. On the card count, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 19.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Moreirense over 1.5 cards sits at 64.6% and Gil Vicente at 65.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.8% (Moreirense 11.5%, Gil Vicente 2.6%). This season Moreirense have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Gil Vicente 1.7.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

65.0%Over 3.5 cards
13.8%Any red card
41.1%Most cards: Gil Vicente
64.6%Moreirense over 1.5 cards
65.8%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards
77.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 65.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGil Vicente are the pick to collect more cards at 41.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 45.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MoreirenseMoreirense

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Gil VicenteGil Vicente
Statistic
Moreirense
Gil Vicente
cards per game
2.7
1.7

fouls per game
14.0
13.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 65.0% for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente.
Will there be a red card in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gil Vicente to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

All cards predictions

Cards predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaMoreirense fixtures and statsGil Vicente fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.