Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Arouca53.2%
Win probability · fair 1.88
Top signals
Arouca or drawVery likely77.9%Fair 1.28
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.4%Fair 1.29
Both teams to scoreClose call54.2%Fair 1.85
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Arouca heavy favourites at 53% when Arouca meet Estrela Amadora in the Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Estrela Amadora are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Draw or Estrela Amadora46.8%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners44.1%@ 2.27
Over 10.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners54.2%@ 1.85
Over 2.5 goals53.0%@ 1.89
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.53
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.91
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
Model vs market
Arouca
53.2%
Draw
24.7%
Estrela
22.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.4%Fair 1.29
Over 2.5Close call53.0%Fair 1.89
BTTS · YesClose call54.2%Fair 1.85
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.2%Fair 1.85
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.1%Fair 2.27
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.8%Fair 3.73
Most cornersArouca49.1%Estrela Amadora40.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call55.9%Fair 1.79
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely43.7%Fair 2.29
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely32.5%Fair 3.08
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot22.9%Fair 4.37
Recent shot volume
Arouca10.2 taken15.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.577.4%2.553.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.4%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Arouca win1.88
Draw4.05
Estrela Amadora win4.52
Both teams to score1.84
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.89
Over 3.5 goals3.25
Arouca most1.88
Estrela Amadora most4.52
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.48
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.23
Over 10.5 corners2.92
Arouca most2.03
Estrela Amadora most2.48
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.39
Over 4.5 cards1.86
Over 5.5 cards2.75
Arouca most2.56
Estrela Amadora most2.36
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.25
Over 9.5 SoT3.06
Arouca most1.95
Estrela Amadora most2.80
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.79
Over 24.5 shots2.29
Over 26.5 shots3.08
Over 28.5 shots4.37
Arouca most1.78
Estrela Amadora most2.64
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.45
Over 24.5 fouls1.78
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
55.9%
Over 24.5
43.7%
Over 26.5
32.5%
Over 28.5
22.9%
Most: Arouca
56.1%
Most: Estrela Amadora
37.9%
Arouca Over 13.2
40.3%
Estrela Amadora Over 13.2
27.9%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
70.1%
Over 7.5
57.4%
Over 8.5
44.5%
Over 9.5
32.7%
Most: Arouca
51.4%
Most: Estrela Amadora
35.7%
Arouca Over 4.2
45.3%
Estrela Amadora Over 4.2
34.1%
Cards
Over 2.5
86.5%
Over 3.5
71.8%
Over 4.5
53.9%
Most: Arouca
39.0%
Most: Estrela Amadora
42.4%
Arouca Over 1.8
69.0%
Estrela Amadora Over 1.8
71.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Arouca clean sheet
34.7%
Estrela Amadora clean sheet
17.4%
Arouca win to nil
28.0%
Estrela Amadora win to nil
10.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
53.2%
draw
24.7%
away
22.1%
double_chance
1X
77.9%
12
75.3%
X2
46.8%
dnb
home
70.7%
away
29.3%
btts
yes
54.2%
no
45.8%
clean_sheet
home
35.0%
away
17.4%
win_to_nil
home
28.4%
away
10.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.4%
home_by_2
16.5%
home_by_3plus
13.4%
away_by_1
13.8%
away_by_2
5.9%
away_by_3plus
2.4%
correct_score
0-0
6.7%
0-1
5.8%
0-2
3.4%
0-3
1.2%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.1%
1-1
11.7%
1-2
5.9%
1-3
2.1%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
3.0%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.4%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.8%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.0%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.4%
under_0.5
6.7%
over_1.5
77.4%
under_1.5
22.6%
over_2.5
53.0%
under_2.5
47.0%
over_3.5
30.8%
under_3.5
69.2%
over_4.5
15.2%
under_4.5
84.8%
over_5.5
6.5%
under_5.5
93.5%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
82.6%
under_0.5
17.4%
over_1.5
52.2%
under_1.5
47.8%
over_2.5
25.6%
under_2.5
74.4%
team_away
over_0.5
65.0%
under_0.5
35.0%
over_1.5
28.2%
under_1.5
71.8%
over_2.5
9.0%
under_2.5
91.0%
most
home
53.2%
draw
24.7%
away
22.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
13.4%
away_+2.5
86.6%
home_-1.5
29.9%
away_+1.5
70.1%
home_-0.5
53.2%
away_+0.5
46.8%
home_+0.5
77.9%
away_-0.5
22.1%
home_+1.5
91.7%
away_-1.5
8.3%
home_+2.5
97.6%
away_-2.5
2.4%
total_exact
exact_0
6.7%
exact_1
15.9%
exact_2
24.4%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
15.6%
exact_5
8.7%
exact_6
4.1%
exact_7plus
2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.7%
draw
40.6%
away
31.7%
total
over_0.5
71.9%
under_0.5
28.1%
over_1.5
36.2%
under_1.5
63.8%
over_2.5
13.6%
under_2.5
86.4%
btts
yes
22.0%
no
78.0%
total_exact
exact_0
28.1%
exact_1
35.7%
exact_2
22.6%
exact_3
9.6%
exact_4plus
4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
39.5%
draw
35.9%
away
24.6%
total
over_0.5
78.3%
under_0.5
21.7%
over_1.5
45.1%
under_1.5
54.9%
over_2.5
19.8%
under_2.5
80.2%
btts
yes
27.8%
no
72.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
22.3%
H/D
4.0%
H/A
1.4%
D/H
16.0%
D/D
14.6%
D/A
10.0%
A/H
3.5%
A/D
6.6%
A/A
21.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
67.7%
under_7.5
32.3%
over_8.5
56.3%
under_8.5
43.7%
over_9.5
44.8%
under_9.5
55.2%
over_10.5
34.2%
under_10.5
65.8%
over_11.5
25.1%
under_11.5
74.9%
over_12.5
17.7%
under_12.5
82.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.1%
under_3.5
33.9%
over_4.5
50.8%
under_4.5
49.2%
over_5.5
36.7%
under_5.5
63.3%
team_away
over_3.5
59.9%
under_3.5
40.1%
over_4.5
44.0%
under_4.5
56.0%
over_5.5
30.2%
under_5.5
69.8%
most
home
49.2%
draw
10.4%
away
40.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.2%
away_+3.5
78.8%
home_-1.5
38.9%
away_+1.5
61.1%
home_-0.5
49.2%
away_+0.5
50.8%
home_+0.5
59.6%
away_-0.5
40.4%
home_+1.5
69.4%
away_-1.5
30.6%
home_+3.5
84.7%
away_-3.5
15.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
55.9%
under_22.5
44.1%
over_24.5
43.7%
under_24.5
56.3%
over_26.5
32.5%
under_26.5
67.5%
over_28.5
22.9%
under_28.5
77.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
64.9%
under_10.5
35.1%
over_12.5
48.2%
under_12.5
51.8%
over_14.5
32.9%
under_14.5
67.1%
team_away
over_10.5
52.4%
under_10.5
47.6%
over_12.5
35.2%
under_12.5
64.8%
over_14.5
21.6%
under_14.5
78.4%
most
home
56.1%
draw
6.1%
away
37.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
31.9%
away_+4.5
68.1%
home_-2.5
43.7%
away_+2.5
56.3%
home_-0.5
56.1%
away_+0.5
43.9%
home_+0.5
62.2%
away_-0.5
37.9%
home_+2.5
73.3%
away_-2.5
26.7%
home_+4.5
82.5%
away_-4.5
17.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
70.1%
under_6.5
29.9%
over_7.5
57.4%
under_7.5
42.6%
over_8.5
44.5%
under_8.5
55.5%
over_9.5
32.7%
under_9.5
67.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.1%
under_3.5
36.9%
over_4.5
45.3%
under_4.5
54.7%
over_5.5
29.8%
under_5.5
70.3%
team_away
over_3.5
52.1%
under_3.5
47.9%
over_4.5
34.1%
under_4.5
65.9%
over_5.5
20.1%
under_5.5
79.9%
most
home
51.4%
draw
13.0%
away
35.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.6%
away_+2.5
73.4%
home_-0.5
51.4%
away_+0.5
48.6%
home_+0.5
64.3%
away_-0.5
35.7%
home_+2.5
84.8%
away_-2.5
15.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
86.5%
under_2.5
13.5%
over_3.5
71.8%
under_3.5
28.2%
over_4.5
53.9%
under_4.5
46.1%
over_5.5
36.4%
under_5.5
63.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
69.0%
under_1.5
31.0%
over_2.5
42.9%
under_2.5
57.1%
team_away
over_1.5
71.0%
under_1.5
29.0%
over_2.5
45.4%
under_2.5
54.7%
most
home
39.0%
draw
18.6%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-1.5
22.8%
away_+1.5
77.2%
home_-0.5
39.0%
away_+0.5
61.0%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+1.5
74.5%
away_-1.5
25.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
79.9%
under_20.5
20.1%
over_22.5
68.8%
under_22.5
31.2%
over_24.5
56.2%
under_24.5
43.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
79.1%
under_9.5
20.9%
over_11.5
62.5%
under_11.5
37.5%
over_13.5
44.5%
under_13.5
55.5%
team_away
over_9.5
75.0%
under_9.5
25.0%
over_11.5
57.1%
under_11.5
42.9%
over_13.5
38.9%
under_13.5
61.1%
most
home
50.7%
draw
6.5%
away
42.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
31.7%
away_+3.5
68.3%
home_-0.5
50.7%
away_+0.5
49.3%
home_+2.5
69.5%
away_-2.5
30.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
29.9%
no
70.1%
home
yes
16.5%
no
83.5%
away
yes
16.1%
no
83.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Primeira Liga
Arouca