Primeira LigaMarítimo M. vs 
Porto Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 68.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 84.3% for over 2.5 to 32.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. On the card count, Marítimo M. are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 19.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.3% | 31.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 32.3% | 67.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.0%
42.9%
65.9%
39.3%
Card handicap
| Marítimo M. line | Marítimo M. | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| -0.5 | 43.0% | 57.1% |
| +0.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| +1.5 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.5% | 40.5% |
This season (2026/27)
0.5Porto cards per game13.2Porto fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Marítimo M. vs Porto. The model leans toward Marítimo M. for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
68.3%Over 3.5 cards19.5%Any red card69.0%Marítimo M. over 1.5 cards65.9%Porto over 1.5 cards71.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Marítimo M. over 1.5 cards sits at 69.0% and Porto at 65.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.5% (Marítimo M. 12.2%, Porto 8.3%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.3% for Marítimo M. vs Porto.
Will there be a red card in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates Marítimo M. to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
