Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs Sporting CP Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 70.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.5% for over 2.5 to 34.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. On the card count, Sporting CP are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 18.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.6% | 65.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.3%
37.4%
73.1%
47.9%
Card handicap
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.5% | 81.5% |
| -0.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| +0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 55.9% | 44.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Sp Braga cards per game13.8Sp Braga fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Sporting CP. It tips Sporting CP for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
70.3%Over 3.5 cards17.6%Any red card64.3%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards73.1%Sporting CP over 1.5 cards68.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 64.3% and Sporting CP at 73.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.6% (Sp Braga 8.3%, Sporting CP 10.1%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.3% for Sp Braga vs Sporting CP.
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates Sporting CP to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
