Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs 
Nacional Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.0% for over 2.5 to 30.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. On the card count, Nacional are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 19.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.4%
37.6%
67.8%
41.5%
Card handicap
| Rio Ave line | Rio Ave | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| -0.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 69.6% | 30.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.0% | 43.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Rio Ave cards per game9.3Rio Ave fouls per game1.3Nacional cards per game10.2Nacional fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rio Ave vs Nacional. The model leans toward Nacional for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
66.3%Over 3.5 cards20.1%Any red card64.4%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards67.8%Nacional over 1.5 cards69.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Rio Ave over 1.5 cards sits at 64.4% and Nacional at 67.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.1% (Rio Ave 14.5%, Nacional 6.6%). This season Rio Ave have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Nacional 1.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.3% for Rio Ave vs Nacional.
Will there be a red card in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
The model rates Nacional to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
