Primeira LigaSL Benfica vs Vitória SC Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 43.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 55.8% for over 22.5 to 22.7% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Head to head on shots, SL Benfica are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.6%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.4% | 67.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.7% | 77.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.4%
49.9%
34.5%
50.3%
33.3%
20.0%
Shot handicap
| SL Benfica line | SL Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -2.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| -0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.6% | 68.4% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to SL Benfica.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
43.6%Over 24.5 shots49.9%SL Benfica over 12.5 shots33.3%Vitória SC over 12.5 shots56.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, SL Benfica over 12.5 shots sits at 49.9% and Vitória SC at 33.3%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.6% for SL Benfica vs Vitória SC.
Which team will have more shots in SL Benfica vs Vitória SC?
The model rates SL Benfica to take more shots at 58.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
