AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
Sheffield UnitedSheff UtdLLWLW
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
DerbyDerbyLDDLL

Sheffield United 1-1 Derby cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.4%

Result

Sheffield United1-1Derby
4 yellow cardsSheffield United 2, Derby 2
1 red cardsSheffield United 0, Derby 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 57.7% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 88.8% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Stephen Martin

Recorded match referee.

Stephen Martin in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 322 5
Goals 2.53 2.00
Yellow cards 3.14 5.20
Red cards 0.10 0.40
Corners 10.4 11.4
Fouls 23.2 23.6
Both teams scored 53% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 46% 20%
Home wins 44% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Sheffield United vs Derby 1-1 2 Yes 6 1 14 25
14 Oct 2026 Norwich vs Southampton 0-1 1 No 4 0 8 24
19 Sep 2026 Burnley vs Derby 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 10 21
12 Sep 2026 Preston vs Lincoln 0-1 1 No 2 0 19 17
22 Aug 2026 Southampton vs Stoke 3-1 4 Yes 8 1 6 31
2 May 2026 Preston vs Southampton 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 15 17
18 Apr 2026 Hull vs Birmingham 1-1 2 Yes 8 0 8 25
11 Apr 2026 Oxford vs Watford 2-0 2 No 3 0 15 19
3 Apr 2026 Norwich vs Portsmouth 1-1 2 Yes 8 0 11 28
21 Mar 2026 Swansea vs Coventry 0-3 3 No 4 0 9 25

Stephen Martin referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sheffield United vs Derby. Slightly more cards are projected for Derby for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.9% 23.1%
3.5 cards 57.7% 42.4%
4.5 cards 38.1% 61.9%
5.5 cards 22.3% 77.7%

Who picks up more cards

Sheffield United
25.0%
Level
19.1%
Derby
55.9%

Team cards lines

Sheffield United

Over 1.5
48.0%
Over 2.5
22.0%

Derby

Over 1.5
70.0%
Over 2.5
44.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sheffield United's; Derby gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sheffield United line Sheffield United Derby
-1.5 11.6% 88.4%
-0.5 25.0% 75.0%
+0.5 44.1% 55.9%
+1.5 64.4% 35.7%

Red card

Any red card11.2%
Sheffield United red card6.0%
Derby red card5.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 63.8% 36.2%
22.5 fouls 48.3% 51.7%
24.5 fouls 33.5% 66.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sheffield United J Smith 2 6.0 3.0
Derby O Langford 2 1.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.9% for over 2.5 to 22.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.7%. Between the two sides, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 55.9%, with a level count at 19.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sheffield United over 1.5 cards sits at 48.0% and Derby at 70.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.2% (Sheffield United 6.0%, Derby 5.6%). Sheffield United’s most frequent referee this season, J Smith, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

57.7%Over 3.5 cards
11.2%Any red card
55.9%Most cards: Derby
48.0%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards
70.0%Derby over 1.5 cards
48.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Smith, Sheffield United’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianDerby are the pick to collect more cards at 55.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.

FAQ

How many cards in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.7% for Sheffield United vs Derby.
Will there be a red card in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Derby to pick up more cards at 55.9%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

ChampionshipSheffield United fixtures and statsDerby fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.