AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
Sheffield UnitedSheff UtdLLWLW
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
DerbyDerbyLDDLL

Sheffield United 1-1 Derby corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.8%

Result

Sheffield United1-1Derby
14 cornersSheffield United 7, Derby 7
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 56.2% and it landed (14 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners56.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sheffield United.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.3% 21.7%
8.5 corners 67.8% 32.2%
9.5 corners 56.2% 43.8%
10.5 corners 44.5% 55.5%
11.5 corners 33.7% 66.3%
12.5 corners 24.3% 75.7%

Who wins the corner count

Sheffield United
59.2%
Level
10.0%
Derby
30.7%

Team corners lines

Sheffield United

Over 3.5
79.4%
Over 4.5
65.7%
Over 5.5
50.9%

Derby

Over 3.5
61.6%
Over 4.5
44.4%
Over 5.5
29.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sheffield United's; Derby gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sheffield United line Sheffield United Derby
-3.5 28.5% 71.5%
-1.5 48.6% 51.4%
-0.5 59.2% 40.8%
+0.5 69.3% 30.7%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 56.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.3% for over 7.5 to 24.3% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.5%. On the corner count, Sheffield United are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 59.2%, with a level count at 10.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

56.2%Over 9.5 corners
59.2%Most corners: Sheffield United
65.7%Sheffield United over 4.5 corners
44.4%Derby over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Sheffield United over 4.5 corners sits at 65.7% and Derby at 44.4%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSheffield United are the pick to win the corner count at 59.2%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 44.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.2% for Sheffield United vs Derby.
Which team will win the corner count in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sheffield United to win the corner count at 59.2%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

ChampionshipSheffield United fixtures and statsDerby fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.