AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Serie A
SassuoloSassuoloWLDLL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1117:30UK
FiorentinaFiorentinaWDLLL

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina. The model leans toward Fiorentina for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.2% 24.8%
3.5 cards 56.3% 43.7%
4.5 cards 37.7% 62.3%
5.5 cards 22.7% 77.3%

Who picks up more cards

Sassuolo
34.8%
Level
19.8%
Fiorentina
45.3%

Team cards lines

Sassuolo

Over 1.5
54.6%
Over 2.5
29.0%

Fiorentina

Over 1.5
62.0%
Over 2.5
36.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sassuolo's; Fiorentina gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sassuolo line Sassuolo Fiorentina
-1.5 18.7% 81.3%
-0.5 34.8% 65.2%
+0.5 54.7% 45.3%
+1.5 73.0% 27.0%

Red card

Any red card12.3%
Sassuolo red card7.0%
Fiorentina red card5.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.8% 26.3%
22.5 fouls 61.7% 38.3%
24.5 fouls 48.8% 51.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sassuolo Davide Di Marco 2 4.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SassuoloSassuolo

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sassuolo at home and Fiorentina away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

FiorentinaFiorentina
Statistic
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Yellow cards per game
1.5
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.7

Matches with card data
4
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.2% for over 2.5 to 22.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.3%. Between the two sides, Fiorentina are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sassuolo over 1.5 cards sits at 54.6% and Fiorentina at 62.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.3% (Sassuolo 7.0%, Fiorentina 5.7%). Sassuolo’s most frequent referee this season, Davide Di Marco, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.3%Over 3.5 cards
12.3%Any red card
45.3%Most cards: Fiorentina
54.6%Sassuolo over 1.5 cards
62.0%Fiorentina over 1.5 cards
61.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherDavide Di Marco, Sassuolo’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianFiorentina are the pick to collect more cards at 45.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
SassuoloSassuolo

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

FiorentinaFiorentina
Statistic
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
fouls per game
9.8
11.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.3% for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina.
Will there be a red card in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The model rates Fiorentina to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ASassuolo fixtures and statsFiorentina fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.