AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Serie A
MilanMilanDWDWW
Wed, 28 Oct 202628/1017:30UK
BolognaBolognaLDWLW

AC Milan vs Bologna cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Milan vs Bologna. Slightly more cards are projected for Bologna for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.4% 29.6%
3.5 cards 50.2% 49.8%
4.5 cards 31.8% 68.2%
5.5 cards 18.0% 82.0%

Who picks up more cards

Milan
38.2%
Level
21.0%
Bologna
40.8%

Team cards lines

Milan

Over 1.5
53.3%
Over 2.5
27.7%

Bologna

Over 1.5
55.2%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Milan's; Bologna gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Milan line Milan Bologna
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 38.2% 61.8%
+0.5 59.2% 40.8%
+1.5 77.4% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card9.8%
Milan red card6.4%
Bologna red card3.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.3% 26.7%
22.5 fouls 61.1% 38.9%
24.5 fouls 48.2% 51.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Milan Matteo Marcenaro 2 4.0 2.5
Bologna Daniele Doveri 2 4.0 2.0
Bologna Kevin Bonacina 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MilanMilan

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Milan at home and Bologna away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Milan
Bologna
Cards per game at this venue
·
0.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
0.9

Matches with card data
2
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 18.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. Between the two sides, Bologna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Milan over 1.5 cards sits at 53.3% and Bologna at 55.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.8% (Milan 6.4%, Bologna 3.6%). Milan’s most frequent referee this season, Matteo Marcenaro, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

50.2%Over 3.5 cards
9.8%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Bologna
53.3%Milan over 1.5 cards
55.2%Bologna over 1.5 cards
61.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMatteo Marcenaro, Milan’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBologna are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
MilanMilan

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Milan
Bologna
fouls per game
9.3
12.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Milan vs Bologna?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.2% for Milan vs Bologna.
Will there be a red card in Milan vs Bologna?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Milan vs Bologna?
The model rates Bologna to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AAC Milan fixtures and statsBologna fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.