AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
SantanderSantanderWLLDL
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:15UK
EspanolEspanolWLLDL

Racing Santander 2-1 Espanyol corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined51.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined48.8%

Result

Santander2-1Espanol
13 cornersSantander 9, Espanol 4
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 51.2% and it landed (13 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners51.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Santander.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.7% 25.4%
8.5 corners 63.3% 36.7%
9.5 corners 51.2% 48.8%
10.5 corners 39.5% 60.5%
11.5 corners 29.0% 71.0%
12.5 corners 20.3% 79.7%

Who wins the corner count

Santander
55.0%
Level
10.6%
Espanol
34.4%

Team corners lines

Santander

Over 3.5
74.9%
Over 4.5
59.9%
Over 5.5
44.6%

Espanol

Over 3.5
61.5%
Over 4.5
44.3%
Over 5.5
29.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Santander's; Espanol gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Santander line Santander Espanol
-1.5 44.1% 55.9%
-0.5 55.0% 45.0%
+0.5 65.6% 34.4%
+1.5 75.1% 25.0%
SantanderSantander

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Santander at home and Espanol away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EspanolEspanol
Statistic
Santander
Espanol
Corners won per game at this venue
5.0
·

Corners conceded per game at this venue
8.7
·

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 74.7% for over 7.5 to 20.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on corners, Santander are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.0%, with a level count at 10.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

51.2%Over 9.5 corners
55.0%Most corners: Santander
59.9%Santander over 4.5 corners
44.3%Espanol over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Santander over 4.5 corners sits at 59.9% and Espanol at 44.3%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSantander are the pick to win the corner count at 55.0%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 51.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Santander vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 51.2% for Santander vs Espanol.
Which team will win the corner count in Santander vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated Santander to win the corner count at 55.0%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

La LigaRacing Santander fixtures and statsEspanyol fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.