AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
SantanderSantanderWLLDL
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:15UK
EspanolEspanolWLLDL

Racing Santander 2-1 Espanyol cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined70.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined29.2%

Result

Santander2-1Espanol
7 yellow cardsSantander 3, Espanol 4
0 red cardsSantander 0, Espanol 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 70.8% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 78.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards70.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jesus Gil Manzano

Recorded match referee.

Jesus Gil Manzano in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 24 5
Goals 3.04 3.20
Yellow cards 4.67 5.60
Red cards 0.17 0.00
Corners 11.3 8.4
Fouls 25.4 27.6
Both teams scored 63% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 71% 80%
Home wins 50% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Santander vs Espanol 2-1 3 Yes 7 0 13 27
10 Oct 2026 Barcelona vs Getafe 3-0 3 No 6 0 11 20
15 Sep 2026 Elche vs Real Madrid 2-3 5 Yes 6 0 7 29
5 Sep 2026 Villarreal vs La Coruna 2-3 5 Yes 4 0 8 28
22 Aug 2026 Valencia vs Celta 0-0 0 No 5 0 3 34
23 May 2026 Alaves vs Vallecano 1-2 3 Yes 6 0 15 27
3 May 2026 Espanol vs Real Madrid 0-2 2 No 7 0 11 35
25 Apr 2026 Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao 3-2 5 Yes 0 0 7 20
12 Apr 2026 Mallorca vs Vallecano 3-0 3 No 5 0 13 24
21 Mar 2026 Levante vs Oviedo 4-2 6 Yes 5 0 4 35

Jesus Gil Manzano referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Santander vs Espanol. The model leans toward Espanol for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.6% 14.4%
3.5 cards 70.8% 29.2%
4.5 cards 53.3% 46.7%
5.5 cards 36.4% 63.6%

Who picks up more cards

Santander
36.3%
Level
18.0%
Espanol
45.7%

Team cards lines

Santander

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
40.2%

Espanol

Over 1.5
71.7%
Over 2.5
47.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Santander's; Espanol gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Santander line Santander Espanol
-1.5 21.1% 78.9%
-0.5 36.3% 63.7%
+0.5 54.4% 45.7%
+1.5 71.3% 28.7%

Red card

Any red card21.6%
Santander red card9.3%
Espanol red card13.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.9% 16.1%
22.5 fouls 73.6% 26.4%
24.5 fouls 61.2% 38.8%
SantanderSantander

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Santander at home and Espanol away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EspanolEspanol
Statistic
Santander
Espanol
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.7
·

Matches with card data
4
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 70.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.6% for over 2.5 to 36.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. On the card count, Espanol are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Santander over 1.5 cards sits at 66.0% and Espanol at 71.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.6% (Santander 9.3%, Espanol 13.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

70.8%Over 3.5 cards
21.6%Any red card
45.7%Most cards: Espanol
66.0%Santander over 1.5 cards
71.7%Espanol over 1.5 cards
73.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 70.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.6%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianEspanol are the pick to collect more cards at 45.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 53.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Santander vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 70.8% for Santander vs Espanol.
Will there be a red card in Santander vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Santander vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated Espanol to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaRacing Santander fixtures and statsEspanyol fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.