AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
SabadellSabadellWDDWL
Full time1-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1013:00UK
TenerifeTenerifeLDLDD

Sabadell 1-1 Tenerife cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined72.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined27.4%

Result

Sabadell1-1Tenerife
8 yellow cardsSabadell 5, Tenerife 3
0 red cardsSabadell 0, Tenerife 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 72.6% and it landed (8 in the match). We called No at 89.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards72.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Saul Ais Reig

Recorded match referee.

Saul Ais Reig in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 11 1
Goals 1.73 Not available
Yellow cards 5.09 Not available
Red cards 0.18 Not available
Corners 9.1 Not available
Fouls 22.2 Not available
Both teams scored 46% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 18% Not available
Home wins 18% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Sabadell vs Tenerife 1-1 2 Yes 9 0 9 26
18 Jan 2026 Albacete vs Cadiz 1-0 1 No 3 0 12 8
10 Jan 2026 Andorra vs Cultural Leonesa 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 11 19
20 Dec 2025 Leganes vs Sp Gijon 0-1 1 No 5 0 13 16
8 Dec 2025 Las Palmas vs Mirandes 0-0 0 No 4 1 5 24
15 Nov 2025 Santander vs Granada 2-2 4 Yes 10 0 11 25
2 Nov 2025 Zaragoza vs La Coruna 0-2 2 No 2 0 10 31
19 Oct 2025 Cordoba vs Almeria 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 5 28
4 Oct 2025 Andorra vs Leganes 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 8 18
21 Sep 2025 Albacete vs Valladolid 2-0 2 No 6 0 8 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sabadell vs Tenerife. The model leans toward Tenerife for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.0% 13.0%
3.5 cards 72.6% 27.4%
4.5 cards 54.9% 45.2%
5.5 cards 37.3% 62.7%

Who picks up more cards

Sabadell
37.9%
Level
18.4%
Tenerife
43.7%

Team cards lines

Sabadell

Over 1.5
68.9%
Over 2.5
42.7%

Tenerife

Over 1.5
72.3%
Over 2.5
46.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sabadell's; Tenerife gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sabadell line Sabadell Tenerife
-1.5 22.0% 78.0%
-0.5 37.9% 62.1%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 73.3% 26.7%

Red card

Any red card10.3%
Sabadell red card4.5%
Tenerife red card6.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.3% 13.7%
22.5 fouls 76.7% 23.3%
24.5 fouls 64.7% 35.3%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.0% for over 2.5 to 37.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Between the two sides, Tenerife are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 18.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sabadell over 1.5 cards sits at 68.9% and Tenerife at 72.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (Sabadell 4.5%, Tenerife 6.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

72.6%Over 3.5 cards
10.3%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Tenerife
68.9%Sabadell over 1.5 cards
72.3%Tenerife over 1.5 cards
76.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 72.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianTenerife are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 54.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Sabadell vs Tenerife?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.6% for Sabadell vs Tenerife.
Will there be a red card in Sabadell vs Tenerife?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sabadell vs Tenerife?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tenerife to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónSabadell fixtures and statsTenerife fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.