AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
RochdaleRochdaleWLDWW
Full time1-0Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
SwindonSwindonWWLLD

Rochdale 1-0 Swindon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.3%

Result

Rochdale1-0Swindon
0 yellow cardsRochdale 0, Swindon 0
1 red cardsRochdale 0, Swindon 1
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.7% and it landed (0 in the match). We called No at 82.5% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

A Dale

Recorded match referee.

A Dale in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 4
Goals 2.78 Not available
Yellow cards 3.33 Not available
Red cards 0.33 Not available
Corners 8.6 Not available
Fouls 21.1 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 44% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Walsall vs Oldham 3-0 3 No 6 1 9 34
3 Oct 2026 Rochdale vs Swindon 1-0 1 No 0 1 16 25
1 Sep 2026 Northampton vs Crawley Town 1-1 2 Yes 2 1 8 15
15 Aug 2026 Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town 0-1 1 No 4 0 6 22
11 Apr 2026 Walsall vs Cheltenham 0-4 4 No 2 0 5 19
21 Mar 2026 Cambridge vs Salford 1-0 1 No 6 0 8 22
7 Mar 2026 Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 9 15
14 Feb 2026 Oldham vs Fleetwood Town 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 14 18
24 Jan 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Shrewsbury 5-1 6 Yes 5 0 2 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rochdale vs Swindon. The model leans toward Swindon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.2% 34.8%
3.5 cards 43.3% 56.7%
4.5 cards 24.8% 75.2%
5.5 cards 12.4% 87.6%

Who picks up more cards

Rochdale
29.1%
Level
22.2%
Swindon
48.7%

Team cards lines

Rochdale

Over 1.5
42.3%
Over 2.5
17.7%

Swindon

Over 1.5
57.1%
Over 2.5
30.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rochdale's; Swindon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rochdale line Rochdale Swindon
-1.5 13.1% 86.9%
-0.5 29.1% 70.9%
+0.5 51.3% 48.7%
+1.5 72.5% 27.5%

Red card

Any red card17.5%
Rochdale red card13.7%
Swindon red card4.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.0% 46.0%
22.5 fouls 38.1% 61.9%
24.5 fouls 24.4% 75.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 43.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.2% for over 2.5 to 12.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.3%. Between the two sides, Swindon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 22.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Rochdale over 1.5 cards sits at 42.3% and Swindon at 57.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Rochdale 13.7%, Swindon 4.4%). This season Rochdale have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Swindon 1.9.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

43.3%Over 3.5 cards
17.5%Any red card
48.7%Most cards: Swindon
42.3%Rochdale over 1.5 cards
57.1%Swindon over 1.5 cards
38.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSwindon are the pick to collect more cards at 48.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 43.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
RochdaleRochdale

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SwindonSwindon
Statistic
Rochdale
Swindon
cards per game
2.4
1.9

fouls per game
12.3
9.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Rochdale vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.3% for Rochdale vs Swindon.
Will there be a red card in Rochdale vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rochdale vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swindon to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Cards

Barnet vs York predictionNewport County vs Chesterfield cards predictionGrimsby vs York cards predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale cards predictionAccrington vs Northampton cards predictionColchester vs Walsall cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

League TwoRochdale fixtures and statsSwindon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.