AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
RochdaleRochdaleWLDWW
Full time1-0Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
SwindonSwindonWWLLD

Rochdale 1-0 Swindon corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.9%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.1%

Result

Rochdale1-0Swindon
16 cornersRochdale 11, Swindon 5
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 53.9% and it landed (16 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners53.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Rochdale.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.1% 23.9%
8.5 corners 65.4% 34.6%
9.5 corners 53.9% 46.1%
10.5 corners 42.4% 57.6%
11.5 corners 32.0% 68.0%
12.5 corners 23.1% 76.9%

Who wins the corner count

Rochdale
57.4%
Level
10.2%
Swindon
32.4%

Team corners lines

Rochdale

Over 3.5
77.1%
Over 4.5
62.9%
Over 5.5
48.2%

Swindon

Over 3.5
61.2%
Over 4.5
44.2%
Over 5.5
29.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rochdale's; Swindon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rochdale line Rochdale Swindon
-3.5 27.0% 73.0%
-1.5 46.7% 53.3%
-0.5 57.4% 42.6%
+0.5 67.6% 32.4%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.1% for over 7.5 to 23.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. On the corner count, Rochdale are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Rochdale over 4.5 corners sits at 62.9% and Swindon at 44.2%. This season Rochdale have averaged 3.8 corners won a game and Swindon 4.1.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.9%Over 9.5 corners
57.4%Most corners: Rochdale
62.9%Rochdale over 4.5 corners
44.2%Swindon over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderRochdale are the pick to win the corner count at 57.4%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 53.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
RochdaleRochdale

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SwindonSwindon
Statistic
Rochdale
Swindon
corners won per game
3.8
4.1

corners conceded per game
5.5
8.0

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Rochdale vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 53.9% for Rochdale vs Swindon.
Which team will win the corner count in Rochdale vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rochdale to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Rochdale and Swindon average this season?
Rochdale have won 3.8 corners a game this season and Swindon 4.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoRochdale fixtures and statsSwindon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.