AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigLWLWL
Full time4-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK9°C · Rain
ElversbergElversbergWLDLW

RB Leipzig 4-0 Elversberg cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.6%

Result

RB Leipzig4-0Elversberg
2 yellow cardsRB Leipzig 1, Elversberg 1
0 red cardsRB Leipzig 0, Elversberg 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.4% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 97.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Bastian Dankert

Recorded match referee.

Bastian Dankert in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 3
Goals 3.53 Not available
Yellow cards 2.95 Not available
Red cards 0.05 Not available
Corners 8.7 Not available
Fouls 19.9 Not available
Both teams scored 68% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 68% Not available
Home wins 37% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 RB Leipzig vs Elversberg 4-0 4 No 2 0 10 28
19 Sep 2026 Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 4 21
29 Aug 2026 Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt 3-3 6 Yes 6 0 7 21
16 May 2026 Werder Bremen vs Dortmund 0-2 2 No 0 0 9 13
3 May 2026 Freiburg vs Wolfsburg 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 8 16
18 Apr 2026 Ein Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig 1-3 4 Yes 1 0 10 14
4 Apr 2026 M'gladbach vs Heidenheim 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 5 23
14 Mar 2026 Dortmund vs Augsburg 2-0 2 No 0 0 14 14
1 Mar 2026 Hamburg vs RB Leipzig 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 13 20
14 Feb 2026 Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich 0-3 3 No 4 0 6 16

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for RB Leipzig vs Elversberg. It tips Elversberg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.2% 31.9%
3.5 cards 46.6% 53.4%
4.5 cards 27.7% 72.3%
5.5 cards 14.4% 85.6%

Who picks up more cards

RB Leipzig
34.6%
Level
22.1%
Elversberg
43.3%

Team cards lines

RB Leipzig

Over 1.5
49.1%
Over 2.5
23.0%

Elversberg

Over 1.5
55.5%
Over 2.5
28.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is RB Leipzig's; Elversberg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

RB Leipzig line RB Leipzig Elversberg
-1.5 17.1% 82.9%
-0.5 34.6% 65.4%
+0.5 56.7% 43.3%
+1.5 76.5% 23.5%

Red card

Any red card3.0%
RB Leipzig red card1.8%
Elversberg red card1.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.0% 46.0%
22.5 fouls 41.5% 58.5%
24.5 fouls 30.2% 69.8%
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means RB Leipzig at home and Elversberg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ElversbergElversberg
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
Yellow cards per game
1.2
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.8

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 68.2% for over 2.5 to 14.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. On the card count, Elversberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 22.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards sits at 49.1% and Elversberg at 55.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.0% (RB Leipzig 1.8%, Elversberg 1.2%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

46.6%Over 3.5 cards
3.0%Any red card
43.3%Most cards: Elversberg
49.1%RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards
55.5%Elversberg over 1.5 cards
41.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 3.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianElversberg are the pick to collect more cards at 43.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 46.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ElversbergElversberg
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
fouls per game
10.6
11.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.6% for RB Leipzig vs Elversberg.
Will there be a red card in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 3.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Elversberg to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 22.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaRB Leipzig fixtures and statsElversberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.