AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigLWLWL
Full time4-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK9°C · Rain
ElversbergElversbergWLDLW

RB Leipzig 4-0 Elversberg corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44%

Result

RB Leipzig4-0Elversberg
10 cornersRB Leipzig 4, Elversberg 6
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 56.0% and it landed (10 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners56.0%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for RB Leipzig.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.2% 21.8%
8.5 corners 67.7% 32.3%
9.5 corners 56.0% 44.0%
10.5 corners 44.3% 55.7%
11.5 corners 33.4% 66.6%
12.5 corners 24.0% 76.0%

Who wins the corner count

RB Leipzig
58.5%
Level
10.1%
Elversberg
31.5%

Team corners lines

RB Leipzig

Over 3.5
78.9%
Over 4.5
65.1%
Over 5.5
50.2%

Elversberg

Over 3.5
62.0%
Over 4.5
44.8%
Over 5.5
29.8%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is RB Leipzig's; Elversberg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

RB Leipzig line RB Leipzig Elversberg
-3.5 27.9% 72.1%
-1.5 47.8% 52.2%
-0.5 58.5% 41.6%
+0.5 68.5% 31.5%
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means RB Leipzig at home and Elversberg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ElversbergElversberg
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
Corners won per game at this venue
5.7
3.7

Corners conceded per game at this venue
6.3
8.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
40.0%
20.0%

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 56.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.2% for over 7.5 to 24.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Between the two sides, RB Leipzig are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.5%, with a level count at 10.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, RB Leipzig over 4.5 corners sits at 65.1% and Elversberg at 44.8%. This season RB Leipzig have averaged 6.0 corners won a game and Elversberg 3.6.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.0%Over 9.5 corners
58.5%Most corners: RB Leipzig
65.1%RB Leipzig over 4.5 corners
44.8%Elversberg over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.0% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderRB Leipzig are the pick to win the corner count at 58.5%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 44.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ElversbergElversberg
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
corners won per game
6.0
3.6

corners conceded per game
6.0
7.2

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.0% for RB Leipzig vs Elversberg.
Which team will win the corner count in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated RB Leipzig to win the corner count at 58.5%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do RB Leipzig and Elversberg average this season?
RB Leipzig have won 6.0 corners a game this season and Elversberg 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaRB Leipzig fixtures and statsElversberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.