Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Queens Park Rangers42.2%
Win probability · fair 2.37
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.7%Fair 1.38
Queens Park Rangers or drawLikely70.0%Fair 1.43
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Queens Park Rangers at 42% for 19 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Queens Park Rangers are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.6%@ 2.15
Over 10.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16
Over 11.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Medium risk
Draw or Preston North End57.8%@ 1.73
Over 9.5 corners56.6%@ 1.77
Under 2.5 goals53.4%@ 1.87
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56
1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.60
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.35
Model vs market
Rangers
42.2%
Draw
27.8%
Preston
30.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.7%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.6%Fair 2.15
BTTS · YesClose call51.8%Fair 1.93
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Over 9.5 cornersClose call56.6%Fair 1.77
Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely36.4%Fair 2.75
Most cornersQueens Park Rangers56.8%Preston North End32.9%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely64.0%Fair 1.56
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.5%Fair 1.94
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.3%Fair 2.55
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.2%Fair 3.54
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.7%2.546.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Queens Park Rangers win2.37
Draw3.60
Preston North End win3.33
Both teams to score1.93
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.15
Over 3.5 goals3.99
Queens Park Rangers most2.37
Preston North End most3.33
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.13
Queens Park Rangers most1.76
Preston North End most3.03
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.18
Over 5.5 cards5.85
Queens Park Rangers most3.14
Preston North End most2.13
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.46
Over 7.5 SoT1.79
Over 8.5 SoT2.32
Over 9.5 SoT3.17
Queens Park Rangers most1.88
Preston North End most2.95
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.56
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.55
Over 28.5 shots3.54
Queens Park Rangers most1.61
Preston North End most3.12
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.69
Over 22.5 fouls2.30
Over 24.5 fouls3.44
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
64.0%
Over 24.5
51.5%
Over 26.5
39.3%
Over 28.5
28.2%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
62.0%
Most: Preston North End
32.1%
Queens Park Rangers Over 13.2
49.5%
Preston North End Over 13.2
28.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
68.6%
Over 7.5
55.9%
Over 8.5
43.1%
Over 9.5
31.6%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
53.3%
Most: Preston North End
34.0%
Queens Park Rangers Over 4.2
45.6%
Preston North End Over 4.2
31.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
71.6%
Over 3.5
50.7%
Over 4.5
31.4%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
31.8%
Most: Preston North End
47.0%
Queens Park Rangers Over 1.8
49.5%
Preston North End Over 1.8
60.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
31.9%
Preston North End clean sheet
24.7%
Queens Park Rangers win to nil
23.4%
Preston North End win to nil
16.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
42.3%
draw
27.8%
away
30.0%
double_chance
1X
70.0%
12
72.3%
X2
57.8%
dnb
home
58.5%
away
41.5%
btts
yes
51.8%
no
48.2%
clean_sheet
home
32.0%
away
24.7%
win_to_nil
home
23.5%
away
16.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.9%
home_by_2
12.8%
home_by_3plus
7.6%
away_by_1
17.7%
away_by_2
8.5%
away_by_3plus
3.8%
correct_score
0-0
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
5.1%
0-3
2.0%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.4%
1-1
13.2%
1-2
7.2%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.3%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.5%
over_1.5
72.7%
under_1.5
27.3%
over_2.5
46.6%
under_2.5
53.4%
over_3.5
25.1%
under_3.5
74.9%
over_4.5
11.4%
under_4.5
88.6%
over_5.5
4.5%
under_5.5
95.5%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.2%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
team_away
over_0.5
68.0%
under_0.5
32.0%
over_1.5
31.5%
under_1.5
68.5%
over_2.5
10.8%
under_2.5
89.2%
most
home
42.3%
draw
27.8%
away
30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
7.6%
away_+2.5
92.4%
home_-1.5
20.3%
away_+1.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
42.3%
away_+0.5
57.8%
home_+0.5
70.0%
away_-0.5
30.0%
home_+1.5
87.7%
away_-1.5
12.3%
home_+2.5
96.2%
away_-2.5
3.8%
total_exact
exact_0
8.5%
exact_1
18.8%
exact_2
26.1%
exact_3
21.5%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
6.9%
exact_6
2.9%
exact_7plus
1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.0%
draw
40.9%
away
25.1%
total
over_0.5
71.2%
under_0.5
28.8%
over_1.5
35.4%
under_1.5
64.6%
over_2.5
13.1%
under_2.5
87.0%
btts
yes
21.2%
no
78.8%
total_exact
exact_0
28.8%
exact_1
35.9%
exact_2
22.3%
exact_3
9.3%
exact_4plus
3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.0%
draw
38.2%
away
26.9%
total
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.2%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
btts
yes
25.1%
no
74.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
26.9%
H/D
5.2%
H/A
1.8%
D/H
14.3%
D/D
15.6%
D/A
11.0%
A/H
2.3%
A/D
5.0%
A/A
17.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
80.1%
under_7.5
20.0%
over_8.5
70.0%
under_8.5
30.0%
over_9.5
58.6%
under_9.5
41.4%
over_10.5
46.9%
under_10.5
53.1%
over_11.5
35.8%
under_11.5
64.2%
over_12.5
26.2%
under_12.5
73.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
79.4%
under_3.5
20.6%
over_4.5
65.7%
under_4.5
34.3%
over_5.5
50.8%
under_5.5
49.2%
team_away
over_3.5
65.1%
under_3.5
34.9%
over_4.5
48.0%
under_4.5
52.0%
over_5.5
32.7%
under_5.5
67.3%
most
home
56.9%
draw
10.2%
away
33.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.7%
away_+3.5
73.3%
home_-1.5
46.2%
away_+1.5
53.8%
home_-0.5
56.9%
away_+0.5
43.1%
home_+0.5
67.0%
away_-0.5
33.0%
home_+1.5
76.1%
away_-1.5
23.9%
home_+3.5
89.3%
away_-3.5
10.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
64.0%
under_22.5
36.0%
over_24.5
51.5%
under_24.5
48.5%
over_26.5
39.3%
under_26.5
60.8%
over_28.5
28.2%
under_28.5
71.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.0%
under_10.5
26.0%
over_12.5
57.8%
under_12.5
42.2%
over_14.5
41.4%
under_14.5
58.6%
team_away
over_10.5
54.4%
under_10.5
45.7%
over_12.5
36.2%
under_12.5
63.8%
over_14.5
21.6%
under_14.5
78.4%
most
home
62.0%
draw
5.9%
away
32.1%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.0%
away_+4.5
63.0%
home_-2.5
49.5%
away_+2.5
50.6%
home_-0.5
62.0%
away_+0.5
38.0%
home_+0.5
67.9%
away_-0.5
32.1%
home_+2.5
78.4%
away_-2.5
21.6%
home_+4.5
86.5%
away_-4.5
13.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
68.6%
under_6.5
31.4%
over_7.5
55.9%
under_7.5
44.1%
over_8.5
43.1%
under_8.5
56.9%
over_9.5
31.6%
under_9.5
68.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.0%
under_3.5
37.0%
over_4.5
45.6%
under_4.5
54.4%
over_5.5
30.2%
under_5.5
69.8%
team_away
over_3.5
49.5%
under_3.5
50.5%
over_4.5
31.8%
under_4.5
68.2%
over_5.5
18.5%
under_5.5
81.5%
most
home
53.3%
draw
12.8%
away
34.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.3%
away_+2.5
71.7%
home_-0.5
53.3%
away_+0.5
46.8%
home_+0.5
66.1%
away_-0.5
34.0%
home_+2.5
85.8%
away_-2.5
14.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
71.6%
under_2.5
28.4%
over_3.5
50.7%
under_3.5
49.3%
over_4.5
31.4%
under_4.5
68.6%
over_5.5
17.1%
under_5.5
82.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
49.5%
under_1.5
50.5%
over_2.5
23.3%
under_2.5
76.7%
team_away
over_1.5
60.6%
under_1.5
39.4%
over_2.5
33.5%
under_2.5
66.5%
most
home
31.8%
draw
21.2%
away
47.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.5%
away_+1.5
84.5%
home_-0.5
31.8%
away_+0.5
68.2%
home_+0.5
53.0%
away_-0.5
47.0%
home_+1.5
73.1%
away_-1.5
27.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
59.2%
under_20.5
40.8%
over_22.5
43.4%
under_22.5
56.6%
over_24.5
29.1%
under_24.5
70.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
59.3%
under_9.5
40.7%
over_11.5
36.8%
under_11.5
63.2%
over_13.5
19.2%
under_13.5
80.8%
team_away
over_9.5
67.8%
under_9.5
32.2%
over_11.5
46.0%
under_11.5
54.0%
over_13.5
26.5%
under_13.5
73.5%
most
home
39.6%
draw
7.9%
away
52.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.4%
away_+3.5
80.6%
home_-0.5
39.6%
away_+0.5
60.4%
home_+2.5
63.2%
away_-2.5
36.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
9.5%
no
90.5%
home
yes
3.8%
no
96.2%
away
yes
5.9%
no
94.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Championship