ChampionshipMillwall vs 
West Ham Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.4% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Millwall have averaged 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded, West Ham 3.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.7% for over 2.5 and 76.4% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 0-0 | 7.0% |
| 3-0 | 6.9% |
| 3-1 | 6.1% |
| 0-1 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Millwall \ West Ham | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Millwall goals, columns = West Ham. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.4%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.1%Both Teams to Score51.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 51.7% for three or more goals and 76.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Millwall favoured at 59.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Millwall vs West Ham?
The model's most likely scoreline for Millwall vs West Ham is 1-0 at 11.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Championship, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
