EredivisiePEC Zwolle vs 
Cambuur Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 34.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 56.7% for over 2.5 to 8.5% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.7%. Head to head on cards, Cambuur are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 23.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.5% | 91.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
36.8%
14.2%
49.8%
24.0%
Card handicap
| PEC Zwolle line | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| -0.5 | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| +0.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| +1.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.9% | 72.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Cambuur cards per game11.8Cambuur fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur. The model leans toward Cambuur for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
34.7%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card36.8%PEC Zwolle over 1.5 cards49.8%Cambuur over 1.5 cards41.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, PEC Zwolle over 1.5 cards sits at 36.8% and Cambuur at 49.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (PEC Zwolle 9.7%, Cambuur 3.7%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 34.7% for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur.
Will there be a red card in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model rates Cambuur to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 23.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
