Telstar vs ADO Den Haag prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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Telstar vs ADO Den Haag: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Telstar

LLDLD

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1013:30UK
ADO Den Haag
Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Telstar or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Telstar48.3%

Win probability · fair 2.07

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.9%Fair 1.22
Telstar or drawLikely72.5%Fair 1.38
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.5%Fair 1.53

Model read

A measured edge to Telstar: 48% is the model's line for this Eredivisie meeting on 11 October 2026. No strong lean on goals (60% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. ADO Den Haag are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.0%@ 2.17
Over 11.5 corners37.0%@ 2.70
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.1%@ 1.64
Over 2.5 goals59.6%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.00
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.57
1-0 correct score7.6%@ 13.12

Model vs market

Telstar

48.3%

Draw

24.2%

ADO Den Haag

27.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.9%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Close call59.6%Fair 1.68
BTTS · YesLikely61.1%Fair 1.64

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.5%Fair 1.53
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.7%Fair 1.80
Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.0%Fair 2.17
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely37.0%Fair 2.70
Most cornersTelstar53.3%ADO Den Haag36.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.8%Fair 1.37
Over 24.5 shotsLikely62.4%Fair 1.60
Over 26.5 shotsClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely40.4%Fair 2.47

Recent shot volume

Telstar8.7 taken18.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.9%2.559.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

TelstarLLDLD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TelstarADO Den Haag
League position#14 of 23#20 of 23
Record W-D-L1-2-30-1-1
Current streakD1D1
Points per game0.83·
Record, home vs away0-1-20-0-1
PPG, home vs away0.33·
Goals scored per game0.83·
Goals conceded per game1.83·
Scored, home vs away1.00·
Conceded, home vs away3.00·
1st half goals per game0.33·
2nd half goals per game0.50·
Corners won per game4.5·
Cards per game1.7·
Fouls per game10.7·
Red cards this season1·
Shots per game8.7·
Shots faced per game18.0·
Shots on target per game2.3·
Over 2.5 rate

66.7%·

BTTS rate

50.0%·

Clean sheets

16.7%·

Rates this season:TelstarADO Den Haag

League averages this season: 3.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 77% · BTTS in 69%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Telstar win2.07
Draw4.13
ADO Den Haag win3.64
Both teams to score1.64

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.68
Telstar most2.07
ADO Den Haag most3.64

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.12
Telstar most1.87
ADO Den Haag most2.71

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.71
Over 3.5 cards2.76
Over 4.5 cards5.12
Over 5.5 cards10.86
Telstar most3.88
ADO Den Haag most1.95

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.31
Over 8.5 SoT1.51
Over 9.5 SoT1.80
Telstar most2.27
ADO Den Haag most2.23

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.95
Over 28.5 shots2.47
Telstar most1.80
ADO Den Haag most2.58

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.74
Over 22.5 fouls2.37
Over 24.5 fouls3.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.8% Over 24.5 62.4% Over 26.5 51.4% Over 28.5 40.4%
Most: Telstar 55.7% Most: ADO Den Haag 38.8%
Telstar Over 13.2 53.6% ADO Den Haag Over 13.2 41.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.8% Over 7.5 76.3% Over 8.5 66.3% Over 9.5 55.6%
Most: Telstar 44.0% Most: ADO Den Haag 44.9%
Telstar Over 4.2 55.3% ADO Den Haag Over 4.2 55.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 58.3% Over 3.5 36.3% Over 4.5 19.5%
Most: Telstar 25.8% Most: ADO Den Haag 51.4%
Telstar Over 1.8 34.4% ADO Den Haag Over 1.8 54.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Telstar clean sheet 27.0%
ADO Den Haag clean sheet 16.7%
Telstar win to nil 21.9%
ADO Den Haag win to nil 11.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.3% draw 24.2% away 27.5%
double_chance
1X 72.5% 12 75.8% X2 51.7%
dnb
home 63.7% away 36.3%
btts
yes 61.1% no 38.9%
clean_sheet
home 27.2% away 16.8%
win_to_nil
home 22.1% away 11.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.5% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 11.9%
away_by_1 15.6% away_by_2 7.9% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 5.1% 0-1 5.4% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.6% 1-1 11.1% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.3% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.7% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.3% 3-1 5.6% 3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.9% under_0.5 5.1% over_1.5 81.9%
under_1.5 18.1% over_2.5 59.7% under_2.5 40.4%
over_3.5 37.3% under_3.5 62.7% over_4.5 20.0%
under_4.5 80.0% over_5.5 9.3% under_5.5 90.7%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.8% over_1.5 53.3%
under_1.5 46.7% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
team_away
over_0.5 72.8% under_0.5 27.2% over_1.5 37.4%
under_1.5 62.6% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
most
home 48.3% draw 24.2% away 27.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.9% away_+2.5 88.1% home_-1.5 26.8%
away_+1.5 73.2% home_-0.5 48.3% away_+0.5 51.7%
home_+0.5 72.5% away_-0.5 27.5% home_+1.5 88.1%
away_-1.5 11.9% home_+2.5 96.0% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 5.1% exact_1 13.0% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.3% exact_5 10.7%
exact_6 5.5% exact_7plus 3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.8% draw 43.2% away 28.0%
total
over_0.5 68.1% under_0.5 31.9% over_1.5 31.7%
under_1.5 68.3% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
btts
yes 19.0% no 81.0%
total_exact
exact_0 31.9% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 7.9% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.1% draw 31.8% away 36.1%
total
over_0.5 85.0% under_0.5 15.0% over_1.5 56.6%
under_1.5 43.4% over_2.5 29.6% under_2.5 70.4%
btts
yes 37.5% no 62.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.2% H/D 5.5% H/A 3.2%
D/H 13.9% D/D 13.7% D/A 15.6%
A/H 2.6% A/D 4.9% A/A 20.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.8% under_7.5 20.2% over_8.5 69.8%
under_8.5 30.2% over_9.5 58.7% under_9.5 41.3%
over_10.5 47.2% under_10.5 52.8% over_11.5 36.3%
under_11.5 63.7% over_12.5 26.8% under_12.5 73.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.5% under_3.5 23.5% over_4.5 62.7%
under_4.5 37.3% over_5.5 48.3% under_5.5 51.7%
team_away
over_3.5 66.2% under_3.5 33.8% over_4.5 50.2%
under_4.5 49.8% over_5.5 35.5% under_5.5 64.5%
most
home 53.4% draw 9.7% away 36.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.7% away_+3.5 74.3% home_-1.5 43.6%
away_+1.5 56.4% home_-0.5 53.4% away_+0.5 46.6%
home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 36.9% home_+1.5 72.0%
away_-1.5 28.0% home_+3.5 85.9% away_-3.5 14.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.8% under_22.5 27.2% over_24.5 62.4%
under_24.5 37.6% over_26.5 51.4% under_26.5 48.6%
over_28.5 40.4% under_28.5 59.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.3% under_10.5 24.7% over_12.5 61.1%
under_12.5 38.9% over_14.5 46.2% under_14.5 53.8%
team_away
over_10.5 65.1% under_10.5 34.9% over_12.5 49.1%
under_12.5 50.9% over_14.5 34.2% under_14.5 65.8%
most
home 55.7% draw 5.5% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.7% away_+4.5 66.4% home_-2.5 44.5%
away_+2.5 55.5% home_-0.5 55.7% away_+0.5 44.3%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+2.5 71.4%
away_-2.5 28.6% home_+4.5 80.2% away_-4.5 19.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.8% under_6.5 15.2% over_7.5 76.3%
under_7.5 23.7% over_8.5 66.3% under_8.5 33.7%
over_9.5 55.6% under_9.5 44.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.8% under_3.5 29.2% over_4.5 55.3%
under_4.5 44.7% over_5.5 40.3% under_5.5 59.8%
team_away
over_3.5 71.3% under_3.5 28.7% over_4.5 55.9%
under_4.5 44.1% over_5.5 40.9% under_5.5 59.1%
most
home 44.0% draw 11.0% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.2% away_+2.5 75.8% home_-0.5 44.0%
away_+0.5 56.0% home_+0.5 55.1% away_-0.5 44.9%
home_+2.5 75.1% away_-2.5 24.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 58.3% under_2.5 41.7% over_3.5 36.3%
under_3.5 63.7% over_4.5 19.5% under_4.5 80.5%
over_5.5 9.2% under_5.5 90.8%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 34.4% under_1.5 65.6% over_2.5 12.7%
under_2.5 87.3%
team_away
over_1.5 54.0% under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 27.7%
under_2.5 72.3%
most
home 25.8% draw 22.8% away 51.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.6% away_+1.5 89.4% home_-0.5 25.8%
away_+0.5 74.2% home_+0.5 48.6% away_-0.5 51.4%
home_+1.5 71.0% away_-1.5 29.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 57.3% under_20.5 42.7% over_22.5 42.1%
under_22.5 57.9% over_24.5 28.5% under_24.5 71.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.3% under_9.5 42.7% over_11.5 35.7%
under_11.5 64.4% over_13.5 18.9% under_13.5 81.1%
team_away
over_9.5 66.4% under_9.5 33.6% over_11.5 45.3%
under_11.5 54.7% over_13.5 26.6% under_13.5 73.4%
most
home 39.4% draw 7.6% away 53.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.7% away_+3.5 80.3% home_-0.5 39.4%
away_+0.5 60.7% home_+2.5 62.3% away_-2.5 37.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
home
yes 7.1% no 92.9%
away
yes 7.4% no 92.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Telstar predictions · ADO Den Haag predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieTelstarADO Den HaagTrack record