Eredivisie
Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 36.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.6% for over 2.5 to 9.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.6%. Head to head on cards, N.E.C. Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 23.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 9.4% | 90.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
39.2%
15.9%
50.3%
24.5%
Card handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | N.E.C. Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| -0.5 | 31.0% | 69.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 22.7% | 77.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Ajax cards per game9.2Ajax fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen. The model leans toward N.E.C. Nijmegen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
36.6%Over 3.5 cards14.4%Any red card39.2%Ajax over 1.5 cards50.3%N.E.C. Nijmegen over 1.5 cards35.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Ajax over 1.5 cards sits at 39.2% and N.E.C. Nijmegen at 50.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.4% (Ajax 4.6%, N.E.C. Nijmegen 10.4%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 36.6% for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen.
Will there be a red card in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates N.E.C. Nijmegen to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 23.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
