Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
AZ Alkmaar Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 30.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 52.6% for over 2.5 to 6.7% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. On the card count, AZ Alkmaar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 24.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 6.7% | 93.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
33.8%
12.4%
46.7%
21.5%
Card handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| +0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +1.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.7% | 75.3% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Feyenoord cards per game8.7Feyenoord fouls per game0.8AZ Alkmaar cards per game10.3AZ Alkmaar fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar. Slightly more cards are projected for AZ Alkmaar for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
30.7%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card33.8%Feyenoord over 1.5 cards46.7%AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards37.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Feyenoord over 1.5 cards sits at 33.8% and AZ Alkmaar at 46.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Feyenoord 6.6%, AZ Alkmaar 6.9%). This season Feyenoord have averaged 0.7 cards a game and AZ Alkmaar 0.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 30.7% for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar.
Will there be a red card in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 24.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
